Tag: analysis

  • May 18, 2023 UPDATE

    May 18, 2023 UPDATE

    FORUM The world has changed and everything in the area of security
    has been rewritten and must be revised in our Black Sea region, where a large
    part of the components of Russia’s large scale war of aggression in Ukraine are
    taking place, said Romanian prime minister Nicolae Ciucă in Bucharest at the
    7th edition of the Black Sea and Balkans Security Forum. Ciucă went on to say
    that the region must cope with a long and high-intensity war that is exhausting
    the resources of both the country in conflict and those of the countries of
    Europe. The two-day forum hosts over 40 sessions. Attending are top civilian
    and military officials, diplomats and experts from the European Union and NATO,
    as well as partner states. The themes discussed include support for the
    European integration of the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine, the reconstruction
    of Ukraine and the European security architecture after the war, as well as the
    food crisis caused by Russia’s invasion, security energy in Europe, the
    security of the Western Balkans and cyber resilience.


    FLOODING Prime minister Nicolae Ciucă said the Romanian authorities
    are ready to provide assistance with rescue operations following the floods in
    Italy. The region of Emilia Romagna in the north of Italy is on high alert as a
    result of heavy rain that caused massive floods and left victims. According to
    Radio Romania’s correspondent, thousands of people have already been evacuated,
    but several tens of thousands are still stranded in areas that have been left
    without electricity. Some trains are still stationary, traffic is disrupted and
    sections of the motorway are closed.


    AGREEMENT The government of Romania and of the UK Thursday
    signed a joint action plan in Bucharest on fighting human trafficking. The
    document is part of the vision and strategy that Bucharest has embraced for the
    past 2 years to turn Romania into a country hostile to people traffickers but
    safe and friendly to the victims of this phenomenon, reads a news release
    issued by the Romanian government. Signing the document also proves our
    government’s concern and care for its more vulnerable citizens, those more
    exposed to the risks of human trafficking, who live either in Romania or in one
    of the largest Romanian diaspora communities, namely in the UK. It is absolutely vital for us to keep our
    firm commitment of fighting this scourge and our capacity and willingness to
    tackle this issue on all three key levels-prevention, combating and victim
    protection. (…) My message is quite clear: trafficking in human beings is a
    form of crime for which the government of Romania has zero tolerance, PM
    Nicolae Ciucă said.



    WB In order to solve external imbalances, Romania
    needs a mix of fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, reads a World Bank
    analysis. Political measures aimed at improving its fiscal situation include
    broadening taxable revenues, improving tax compliance, introducing critical
    reforms in public pensions and salaries and cutting inefficient expenditure. A
    consolidation of public investment management would help release significant EU
    funding and would improve critical sectors lagging behind in Romania, such as
    the public education and healthcare, reforming state-owned enterprises, or
    infrastructure. In turn, the latter would contribute to improved productivity
    and competitiveness, with a positive impact on Romania’s foreign position. Romania’s
    external imbalances have deepened lately. Since 2018, the country has seen
    deepening fiscal and current account deficits, jointly with an expansionary
    fiscal policy. The two major external shocks, the Covid-19 pandemic and the war
    in Ukraine, have strengthened these imbalances. (AMP)

  • April 1, 2020

    April 1, 2020


    ANALYSIS -
    President Klaus Iohannis is today chairing a meeting aimed at analyzing and presenting
    public safety and order measures in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.
    Taking part are Prime Minister Ludovic Orban, Interior Minister Marcel Vela,
    Defense Minister Nicolae Ciuca and State Secretary with the Interior Ministry,
    Police Chief Bogdan Despescu. Authorities report 2,245 infections with the new
    coronavirus and 85 deaths. 220 people have recovered. Prosecutors have launched
    a criminal investigation into several irregularities reported at the Suceava
    County Hospital in Suceava, the only county where total quarantine has been declared
    and where a large number of medical staff and patients have tested positive for
    COVID-19. A third of the total number of people who died to the virus were from
    Suceava.




    UNEMPLOYMENT
    – Businesses, self-employed people and other types of employees can apply for
    technical unemployment starting today. Labor Minister Violeta Alexandru made a
    series of declarations regarding the two decrees regulation this field. The
    state will thus pay 75% of the average gross salary, namely no more than 475
    euros. The measure is in place only during the state of emergency. Athletes are
    also eligible for this type of unemployment benefits. All the related documents
    will be filed online.




    LOAN – The
    Finance Ministry has taken out a new loan worth 415 million euros on the local
    markets. Finance Minister Florin Citu says the money will be used to pay
    salaries, pensions, social welfare benefits and VAT refunds. Financial
    institutions have provided the state with funds after a period when cash
    withdrawals, from both the population and businesses, have doubled compared to
    December 2019. The National Bank says this represents the peak of financial
    tensions caused by the coronavirus crisis.




    INDUSTRY -
    The Romanian pharmaceutical industry will report a record high turnover in 2020,
    an estimated 14 billion euros, in the context of the growing demand of
    medication and sanitary equipment generated by the coronavirus pandemic, reads
    a recent study conducted by KeysFin, one of the country’s top business
    information providers. According to estimates, the economy will drop in 2020 by
    as much as 7%. Still, the pharmaceutical industry, which has been reporting
    constant growth in the last 10 years, will be one of the privileged sectors in
    the current context, alongside the food, IT&C and agriculture industries,
    as well as energy, natural gas and water supply providers. Some 170
    manufacturers of medicine and pharmaceutical gear are certified in Romania, in
    addition to 6,500 retailers and wholesalers trading these types of products.








    CORONAVIRUS
    IN EUROPE – The COVID-19 pandemic has
    killed over 30,000 people in Europe, of which two thirds in Italy and Spain,
    France Press quotes information released by national authorities. France is the
    country with the third-largest number of victims. Europe is the continent most
    affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The European Commission has proposed the disbursement
    of an additional 75 million euros to support operations aimed at repatriating
    European citizens and increasing the reserve budget for the purchase of medical
    equipment. The Commission is considering an adjustment of the said budget.
    Since the start of the pandemic, some 2,300 EU citizens have been repatriated
    from China, Japan, the United States, Morocco, Tunisia, Georgia, the
    Philippines and Cape Verde. Another 80 similar flights are scheduled for the
    coming days.


    STUDY – Isolation and other measures adopted to avert the
    COVID-19 pandemic from spreading have saved the lives of some 59,000 people in
    11 European countries, researchers with the Imperial College in London have
    revealed. The measures taken under advisement are quarantine for the sick, the
    closing-down of schools and universities, banning public gatherings, social
    distancing measures and general isolation. Italy, the first country to introduce
    strict measures and where the pandemic has reached its peak, some 38,000 lives
    were saved due to the decision to impose total quarantine, the study reveals.
    Next on the list is Spain with 16,000 lives saved, followed by France with
    2,500 lives saved, Belgium with 560, Germany with 550, the UK with 370,
    Switzerland with 340, Austria with 140, Sweden with 82, Denmark with 69 and
    Norway with 10 lives saved. Researchers say that any more deaths will be
    averted by keeping interventions in place until transmission drops to low
    levels.


    (Translated by V. Palcu)

  • A new president of Moldova

    A new president of Moldova

    One month ago, the citizens of the Republic of Moldova went to the polls to elect their president. It was the first time in two decades that the president was elected by direct vote. The winner, pro-Russian Socialist Igor Dodon, won by 70,000 votes in the race against pro-European candidate Maia Sandu. The results were validated this week by the Constitutional Court of Moldova, which confirmed Igor Dodon as head of state. At the same time, they called on the Moldovan Parliament to review legislation in order to remove shortcomings noticed during the elections and the campaign. The president elect will be sworn in on 23 December, and he has already announced the changes in policy he intends to apply. This includes the federalization of the Republic of Moldova.



    Here is political analyst Vlad Turcanu commenting on that: ”We have to make a clear distinction between Igor Dodons election campaign discourse, which he has not completely disavowed, and the attributions of the president of the Republic of Moldova, granted by the Constitution, allowing him to introduce such projects as federalization. The Republic of Moldova is, after all, a parliamentary country, and Igor Dodons attributions have in the meantime reduced substantially. And I recall here the decision passed by Parliament to transfer the intelligence services, for instance, under their control, after being under the control of the presidency. I also believe that Igor Dodon, after taking over the office, will face a situation under which he will be unable to apply the plans he announced publicly in the campaign, because there are state institutions, such as the Foreign Ministry, which follows very precise policies, also specified in national legislation, as well as in the Association Agreement which Moldova has with the European Union.”



    Igor Dodon was faced with a situation in which he had to admit, in interviews with mostly Russian media outlets, that he does not have enough prerogatives to attack the Association Agreement with the EU without working with Parliament.



    Here is Vlad Turcanu again: “One of Igor Dodons campaign themes was to develop economic cooperation with the Russian Federation. Any expert in Chisinau would say that, first of all, a re-launch of economic cooperation with Russia is not forthcoming soon, and any opening by Moscow towards this cooperation would mean serious concessions in Moldovas foreign policy, regarding, for instance, the separatist region of Trans-Dniester. Parliament will not allow him to intervene in the cooperation with the European Union.”



    Vlad Turcanu added that Igor Dodon would not have won the presidency without support from the state apparatus, the media support provided by the Democratic Party, who opted for him against Maia Sandu, because for them Igor Dodon was a candidate and now a president that is much more comfortable than Maia Sandu, who showed she was opposed to any attempt made by the Democratic Party at pulling her on their side.



    In terms of the relationship with the Russian Federation, Vlad Turcanu believes that Dodon is an agent acting on behalf of Moscow: “The Republic of Moldova right now has a strategic partnership with the Russian Federation, which Igor Dodon is supposed to substantiate. The extent to which this may occur depends on the political class in Chisinau. But, considering that the Republic of Moldova is dependent on foreign financing and that it can reform its institutions with help from the West, including there Romania, the EU and the US, I believe that a better relationship with the Russian Federation is possible, but one cannot overlook the lapses in the past. I dont believe Moscow is willing to give way in relation to Moldova regarding Trans Dniester, for instance. Russia wants all or nothing. I dont think Igor Dodon has any chance to get concessions from the Kremlin in terms of the Trans Dniester situation. We have seen how that was not possible under Vladimir Voronin, who tried, just like Igor Dodon, to convince Moscow in 2001-2002 to grant them control over that region. We know what outcome Vladimir Voronins attempts in this direction had — a freeze in relations between Chisinau and Tiraspol for almost five years. The Russian Federation is not willing, as far as Im concerned, to relent in relation to the Republic of Moldova no matter who is president, Igor Dodon or a pro-European president.”



    On the other hand, Vlad Turcanu said that the fact that the Social Democratic Party won the elections in Romania might mean that economic and political relations between Romania and Moldova could be boosted, considering the special relationship cultivated by the Romanian ruling party with the Moldovan Democratic Party, which is now ruling after these elections.