Radio România Internațional

Tag: demographics

Challenges of an ageing population

Romanians are getting fewer and older.

The population of Romania in mid-2024 was 21,779,000, down 1% compared to June 1, 2023. According to the National Statistics Institute, demographic aging is deepening, with the over-65 age bracket now almost 1 million people larger than the under-14 segment. The number of women is at present half a million larger than the number of men, and the national average age is close to 43. This is the radiograph of the current situation. The dynamics, however, is constantly worrying, according to experts. Since the 2011 census until the most recent one, of 2021, Romania has lost approximately one million inhabitants, the president of the National Statistics Institute (INS), Tudorel Andrei, said half a year ago in a debate organized by the media in Bucharest. He pointed out to the sharp aging of the population over the last 30 years (by about 7.7 years on average, but much more pronounced in the case of women), and to the fact that, in the coming years, Romania will very likely change places with the Netherlands and will go down from sixth to seventh in the European Union, in terms of population number.

Economist Ionuț Dumitru, former head of the Fiscal Council, warns that the worst part is that this very sharp decline will be felt, in the coming years, in the segment of the active population. In his opinion, the retirement of those born in the period 1968-1990 – when the communist regime prohibited abortions and discouraged the use of contraceptives – is a very strong shock. Experts also say that Romania’s 65-and-over demographic group is among the fastest growing in Europe, a trend that is expected to continue.

The consequences of an aging workforce become apparent as a smaller workforce group must support a larger community of retirees. This change has far-reaching implications in various sectors, from the economy to healthcare, creating a ripple effect that touches every corner of the Romanian society. Moreover, the birth rate in Romania has been declining for decades, falling below the replacement level needed to maintain a stable population. In the last 35 years, this has almost halved – from about 60 births per thousand women of childbearing age, to 35.

Many young people are leaving the country in search of better economic opportunities, and this exodus worsens demographic imbalances. Finally, commentators point to the inefficiency of the political decision makers. In spite of their declared good intentions, none of the governments in Bucharest, regardless of their ideological color, managed to create programs able to convince the increasingly numerous Romanians in the Diaspora to come back home.

29 October 2024
The challenges and opportunities of an aging Europe

The most recent demographic change report from the European Commission, from June 2020, reveals that in the last half century, life expectancy in the EU went up by around 10 years, for both men and women. According to the document, right now 20% of the population is over 65, and estimates are that, by 2070, this figure will go up to 30%.

As a guest on Radio Romania, Vladimir Alexandrescu, with the National Institute of Statistics, reviewed the factors that contribute to this situation in the EU, including Romania – a country that is somewhere at the middle of the list in terms of aging population:

“Nutrition conditions, despite some voices say, are better and better in European countries; health conditions, pandemic aside – because it is an outlier – are better overall in all countries, lifestyles have improved everywhere, and as a result, life expectancy is constantly going up. Now we have a life expectancy of over 80 in the EU, we are slowly getting closer to this level, we are not very far from the rest of Europe. Of course, this will cause a problem, because, by the nature of things, the aging need more care than the young. Therefore, all countries will increase social spending over the next few decades.

Thanks to healthier lifestyles, as well as to medical advances, such as improved prevention, diagnosis, and treatments, most pensioners in the EU have better health, and have better choices for their free time. Many of these, more than ever, according to community data, choose to work longer, they prolong their careers, and take part in social activities after retirement. Others don’t, and social protection systems face a challenge in supporting them. What is important is the big picture, identifying trends. Once again, Vladimir Alexandrescu:

“A few years back, demographers have introduced a second indicator, in addition to life expectancy at birth, which is a substantial indicator that has always existed. This second indicator is the expectancy for a healthy life. Precisely because it is extremely important for people to not become a burden on society, for his fellow human beings, but to have a healthy and active life and continue to be of support to their families, for their fellow citizens. As regards this second indicator, if we were to look at the details, we notice some things that clash with the first. For instance, given that women have a higher life expectancy at birth than men – in Romania it is 79 for women and 72 for men, a large difference – the difference in the EU is 5 years, 83 against 78. Well, in terms of healthy lifestyles, this is higher for men than for women. If we reference a ceiling of 60 years of age, we see that past 60, men’s healthy life expectancy is slightly higher than that of women.

The new realities in terms of aging of the population are high on the agenda in Brussels, which is analyzing all facets, from the important contribution that older people can have in society, down to the degree to which pension systems are prepared to cope with a higher and higher number of pensioners. One of the opportunities for the Union is what is called the ‘third age economy’, which consists of products and services to satisfy the needs and preferences specific to the elderly. Estimates are that the third age economy will be growing by around 5% per year, from 3.7 thousand billion Euro five years ago, to 5.7 thousand billion Euro in 2025. Tourism, smart homes to encourage independent living, assisting technologies, accessible products and services, the robotics of wellness services, or personal and automatized mobility, these are just a few sectors that may reveal opportunities for employment in close relation to the third age economy.

At the same time, the prospects of patients may be improved by telemedicine, smartphone apps, bio-sensors for remote diagnosis and monitoring. All these are mentioned in a green charter on an aging population issued after the European Commission issued its report. In an attempt to identify the optimal response, the document launches an ample debate on the challenges and opportunities for the aging population of Europe, taking into account the effects of these demographic trends on society and the economy. From and EU perspective, this includes everything, from a healthy lifestyle and lifelong learning, to consolidating healthcare systems, to answer the needs of the aging. At the same time, improving birthrates is also among the initiatives that may, in time, help balance demographics.

2 July 2021
The Latest Demographic Developments

The National Institute of Statistics
(INS) has confirmed the warning signal it issued last December after the
publication of a yearly report on Romania’s demographic dynamics comprising
data on the number and the structure of population as well as on its natural
and migratory displacement. On Monday the INS announced that 3000 less
children had been born in November than in October, while 520 more dead had been reported. All in all, the natural
growth was on a negative trend and the population decreased by more than 7000
people in a single month.

The number of children within a family has also
diminished as more and more women nowadays decide to have children when they
are older, the number of marriages has decreased, while divorces are on the
rise. The process of depopulation has stepped up in the past 25 years after the
fall of the communist dictatorship, being triggered by the opening of borders,
which eased migration; about three million Romanians are currently living
abroad. Although the migration phenomenon has lately diminished, it made a
significant contribution to depopulation because most of the migrants were
people with ages between 25 and 34, which heavily bore on the birth rate. After
1989 the number of Romanians dropped from 23.2 million to 19.9, completely
reversing the situation back in the communist time when an abortion ban led to
a demographic growth of 26%.

Of course the INS president Tudor Andrei
disapproves of the brutal intrusion of the communist state into the family
life, explaining that such rapid effects could be obtained only in totalitarian
systems. Romania’s modernization process also entails a series of negative
demographic phenomena the Western societies already dealt with in the past
decades. However, according to Tudor Andrei, there are western countries, like
France for instance, which has seen a population growth of 13% in the past 25
years. The INS president looks into the causes that made possible such a growth
rate.

Tudor Andrei: There are fiscal measures directly targeting people with
children: building more kindergartens and other facilities in which children
can get education at the same time allowing parents to have an active life
shortly after the birth of a child; there is also a third category of measures
such as tax exempton applying to certain categories of families.

In turn, the director of the Centre for
Demographic Research of the Romanian Academy, Vasile Ghetau said that a survey
should be conducted among young people in order to find out why an increasing
number of couples did not want children anymore and what might convince them to
reconsider their decision.

12 January 2016
December 11, 2015 UPDATE

Romania, that held the presidency of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organisation for the past six months presented an activity report at a meeting on Fiday in Bucharest. The main goals of the Romanian mandate were to capitalize on the potential of economic cooperation and make the best out of the organisation’s cooperation instruments, said the cheif of Romanian dipomacy Lazar Comanescu. Special importance was paid to strengthening ties between the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organisation and the European Union. The Russian Federation has taken over the Organisation’s presidency from Romania.

The annual inflation rate in Romania remained negative in November, although it rose from minus 1.6% in October to minus 1.1%, according to data released by the National Statistics Institute on Friday. Last month, the National Bank of Romania lowered by 0.4% its annual inflation forecast, to 0.7% negative, and for next year the inflation forecast was revised up to 1.1%. The central bank governor, Mugur Isărescu, mentioned that the negative inflation rate was prompted by the lowering of the VAT for foodstuffs to 9% this summer.

The expert committees in the Romanian Parliament discussed on Friday the draft budget for 2016. Talks will continue during the weekend, and the final vote in the Parliament plenum is scheduled for Wednesday. The Social Democratic Party, in power, voiced satisfaction with the bill, which they say concurs with the previous government’s views on fiscal relaxation and economic growth. In turn, the Liberals in opposition say the overall budget structure is reasonable, and slight amendments are possible during the debates in the Parliament committees, although no major changes are expected.

The population of Romania dropped in 2014 below the 20-million threshold, a level similar to the one reported in 1966. According to the National Statistics Institute, until 2013 the number of people fell particularly as a result of labour migration, whereas last year the main cause was the wide gap between the birth and death rates. If this trend continues, in 30-40 years the population of Romania will go down to around 14 million.

Romania must fully implement the Directive on Deposit Guarantee Schemes, under which bank clients will benefit from quicker disbursements and a better safety mechanism. The deadline for transposing these provisions in the national legislation was July, and the European Commission has officially requested Romania to conform. Ten EU member countries are yet to introduce the European Directive in their national legislation, and unless they take appropriate measures within two months, the Commission may decide to notify the EU Court of Justice.

The Romanian Naval Forces frigate “Regina Maria” is taking part, alongside vessels from the US, Turkey and Ukraine, in a Black Sea exercise scheduled to conclude on December 16. The exercise is part of the NATO measures designed to enhance confidence among the allies, reads a news release issued by the Naval Forces Command. “Regina Maria,” with a 220-strong crew, the American destroyer USS Ross, a Turkish frigate and a Ukrainian auxiliary ship will conduct exercises to prepare response to multiple air, naval and submarine threats, to impose sea embargoes and monitor naval transportation. The exercise takes place at a time when the security situation at the Black Sea requires enhanced interoperability between the Romanian Naval Forces and its partners.

(Translated by Elena Enache)

11 December 2015
December 11, 2015

BUDGET LAW – In Bucharest, the expert committees in Parliament are discussing today the draft budget for next year. The talks will continue during the weekend, and the final vote in the Parliament plenum is scheduled for Wednesday. The Social Democratic Party, in power, voiced satisfaction with the bill, which they say concurs with the previous governments views on fiscal relaxation and economic growth. In turn, the Liberals in opposition say the overall budget structure is reasonable, and slight amendments are possible during the debates in the Parliament committees, although no major changes are expected.

INFLATION – In Romania, the annual inflation rate remained negative in November, although it rose from minus 1.6% in October to minus 1.1%, according to data released today by the National Statistics Institute. Last month, the National Bank of Romania lowered by 0.4% its annual inflation forecast, to 0.7% negative, and for next year the inflation forecast was revised up to 1.1%. The central bank governor, Mugur Isărescu, mentioned that the negative inflation rate was prompted by the lowering of the VAT for foodstuffs to 9% this summer.

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS – The population of Romania dropped in 2014 below the 20-million threshold, a level similar to the one reported in 1966. According to the National Statistics Institute, until 2013 the number of people fell particularly as a result of labour migration, whereas last year the main cause was the wide gap between the birth and death rates. If this trend continues, in 30-40 years the population of Romania will go down to around 14 million.

EU DIRECTIVE – Romania must fully implement the Directive on Deposit Guarantee Schemes, under which bank clients will benefit from quicker disbursements and a better safety mechanism. The deadline for transposing these provisions in the national legislation was July, and the European Commission has officially requested Romania to conform. Ten EU member countries are yet to introduce the European Directive in their national legislation, and unless they take appropriate measures within two months, the Commission may decide to notify the EU Court of Justice.

BSEC – Bucharest is hosting today the 33rd meeting of the foreign affairs ministers of the Organisation of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation countries. Romania, a founding member of the Organisation, held the rotating presidency for the 5th time. The meeting is chaired by the Romanian Foreign Minister, Lazăr Comănescu, who will stress the progress made in terms of economic cooperation in the Black Sea region during Romanias six-month presidency. According to a news release issued by the Foreign Ministry, Comănescu will hand over the presidency to the Russian Federation, which will head the organisation in the first half of 2016.

NATO EXERCISE – The Romanian Naval Forces frigate “Regina Maria is taking part, alongside vessels from the US, Turkey and Ukraine, in a Black Sea exercise scheduled to conclude on December 16. The exercise is part of the NATO measures designed to enhance confidence among the allies, reads a news release issued by the Naval Forces Command. Regina Maria, with a 220-strong crew, the American destroyer USS Ross, a Turkish frigate and a Ukrainian auxiliary ship will conduct exercises to prepare response to multiple air, naval and submarine threats, to impose sea embargoes and monitor naval transportation. The exercise takes place at a time when the security situation at the Black Sea requires enhanced interoperability between the Romanian Naval Forces and its partners.

HANDBALL – Romanias womens handball team is playing against Russia today, in the last game in Group D at the handball World Championship in Denmark. Although defeated in its last two games by the most valuable opponents so far, Spain and Norway, the defending Olympic and European champions, the Romanians moved forward into the eighth-finals, after having outperformed the national teams of Puerto Rico and Kazakhstan. In the next stage, Romania is to play on Monday against the winner of the match between France and Brazil. Romania is the only country to have taken part in all the World Championship final tournaments since 1957, with three medals won so far, the gold in 1962 and silver in 1973 and 2005.

(translation by: Ana-Maria Popescu)

11 December 2015