The European Parliament election of
May 2019 confirmed the Social-Democratic Party had been losing ground, at the
time the National Liberal Party winning most of the vote. Under the heavy
burden of their own mistakes, the Social-Democrats dropped from 45%, a figure
they reported at the legislative election of 2016, to under 23%. The day
following this failure, the Social-Democrats also lost their leader, Liviu
Dragnea, sentenced to prison for corruption and deemed the man responsible for
the party’s sidetracking. His replacement, Viorica Dancila, a Prime Minister
since January 2018, will go down in the dark history of the Social-Democratic
Party as the candidate who won the fewest votes in a presidential runoff. In
November, the acting president Klaus Iohannis secured a new term in office, winning
66% of the vote.
Previously, the Liberal Party had grabbed another victory,
namely removing the Dancila Cabinet from power and taking office. Thus
Iohannis’s winning the election marked the return of the Liberals in power.
Still, the Social-Democrats still hold a relative majority in Parliament, which
forced Ludovic Orban’s Cabinet to take responsibility for a number of laws,
including the state budget for 2020. The Liberals however will find it
increasingly difficult to rule in the absence of a solid majority, which can
only be obtained in an election. It is something that 2020 will decide. Now,
more than ever, there is talk about early elections, which would favor the
Liberals more than the Social-Democrats. In such a case the Liberals would get
a fresh start at the end of a year in office, while the Social-Democrats would
have little time to close ranks after the repeated blows they were dealt last
year. Early elections entail a complicated and difficult process,
constitutionally speaking. This is why no one fathoms such a scenario to
eventually come through, says political pundit Alexandru Lazarescu.
It’s hard to believe we will get
to that point. Of course, right now the National Liberal Party would get a
better score as compared to the end of the year, when legislative elections are
due, but it’s complicated. So I believe the discussion is meant to keep the
topic in the limelight, while it doesn’t seem reasonable to think this will
actually happen.
In mid-2020 Romania will also see
local elections, which will hold an important stake as well. Mayors are
currently elected in one round of elections, which raises serious questions
about their representation. Large parties, the Social-Democratic Party first
and foremost, but also the National Liberal Party, are favored by the current
system, whereas smaller parties, Save Romania Union in particular, want to
change the current legislation to increase their odds. The Liberals said they
want the same thing, though many suspect they wouldn’t be too bothered if the
legislation stayed the same, which would certainly help them win the election
in large cities currently under their political control. The biggest prize is,
as always, Bucharest. Once a traditional fiefdom of the right-wing, the capital
city is now under the full control of the Social-Democrats.
(Translated by V. Palcu)