Radio România Internațional

Tag: forecast

  • Encouraging economic figures

    Encouraging economic figures

    The National Statistics Institute (INS) announced on Tuesday that Romanias GDP went up 2.8% in the first quarter of this year compared to the last quarter of 2020. The same figure was made public by the EU statistics office, Eurostat, which noted that Romanias economy in the first quarter of the year was the most dynamic in the EU.



    Also, according to the National Statistics Institute, the quarter-on-quarter economic growth rate was negative 0.2% in nominal terms, whereas the seasonally adjusted rate was zero.




    At the end of April, the National Strategy and Forecast Committee had operated an upward adjustment to its economic growth estimate for this year, and similarly improved figures came from the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund.




    After Tuesdays announcement by the INS and Eurostat, the Liberal PM Florin Cîțu spoke about the quickest economic recovery in history after the most severe crisis of the last century. He also said his right-of-centre coalition cabinet is working on new measures to ensure the post-pandemic economy is stronger and more competitive. And, PM Cîțu added, for the forthcoming years an economic growth rate is foreseeable that will “beat all previous estimates.




    The economic analyst Aurelian Dochia confirms that figures are better than expected:




    Aurelian Dochia: “We are already close to the maximum the Romanian economy saw in the first quarter of 2020. In other words, we have recovered all we lost last year, and the prospects for 2021 will likely be some of the best weve ever had.




    Marcel Ciolacu, the head of the Social Democratic Party in opposition, argues that what is truly historic is the collapse of peoples spending power. The Social Democrat mentioned 17% higher electricity bills, 9% more expensive fuel, skyrocketing food prices and an inflation rate above 3%, which, he says, has “ripped through the peoples incomes already frozen by PM Cîțu.



    His party colleague Mihai Fifor, a former defence minister, also states in a news release that behind the economic growth rate reported for the first quarter of the year as against the last quarter of 2020, publicised as a victory for the Liberals in power, is the truly relevant indicator, namely the comparison between Q1 2021 and Q1 2020. What PM Florin Cîţu sees as an accomplishment is in fact, according to Mihai Fifor, “the worst economic result for a first quarter in the past 5 years, worse even than last year when Romania went into lockdown. (tr. A.M. Popescu)

  • September 26 – October 2 , 2020

    September 26 – October 2 , 2020

    Local elections in the time of pandemic


    46% of the Romanians with the right to vote went to the polls
    last Sunday to elect their local authorities. Although lower than at the previous
    such election, the turnout was good in the complicated context created by the
    pandemic, which imposed unprecedented health safety measures on election
    Sunday. The vote has already brought about changes and heralds a tough
    confrontation at the parliamentary elections due in December. For the first
    time, the governing Liberals won the political vote, practically doubling its
    number of county council presidents and winning the majority of town halls. Moreover,
    the National Liberal Party broke the monopoly of the Social Democrats in counties
    that had been loyal to them for 2 or 3 decades. However, the Social Democratic
    Party, with the largest number of members in parliament, is still the political
    party that holds most mayoralties and the first place with regard to the number
    of county council presidents. The great loss for the party is the one recorded
    in Bucharest, which it had totally controlled for four years. The independent
    Nicusor Dan, supported by the National Liberal Party and the Save Romania -
    PLUS Alliance will be the mayor of the capital, replacing Gabriela Firea.


    The candidates of the center-right alliance created ad-hoc in
    Bucharest also won in three of the 6 sectors of the capital. At the Municipal
    Council, the Social Democratic Party is on the first position, but the Save
    Romania – PLUS Alliance obtained scores that will allow them to decide together
    the administration of a city rich in resources, but poor in vision and
    projects. Through the second place obtained at the political vote on Bucharest
    and the winning of some important municipalities like Timişoara and Braşov, in
    which they dethroned liberal mayors, the Save Romania – PLUS Alliance confirms
    its status as an alternative political force. The victory of a German in
    Timişoara and a French woman in sector 1, the richest in Bucharest, is the proof
    that the Alliance comes with something new in Romanian politics. Unperturbed by
    the pandemic, the electoral process is overshadowed by scandals and cross-fire accusations
    of fraud between the Social Democratic Party and the Save Romania – PLUS Alliance, especially regarding the number
    of votes obtained in Bucharest and sector 1 in particular.



    Daily records of new coronavirus infections


    This week, Romania has for the first time exceeded the threshold
    of 2000 daily infections. Specialists had anticipated that this would be the
    case, especially after the opening of schools. The number of daily infections
    is increasing throughout Europe and there is talk of the imminence of a second
    wave of the pandemic. In Romania, more than 130,000 cases of infection have
    been reported, and the number of dead is approaching 5,000. Some 500 patients
    are constantly in intensive care, but only one third are intubated and need
    ventilation, said the Minister of Health, Nelu Tataru. At national level, the
    incidence of COVID-19 cases is close to one in one thousand inhabitants, but
    the differences are big from one area to another. That is why the
    reintroduction of restrictions or even quarantine must be established according
    to the local situation of the coronavirus epidemic, and not at the level of the
    entire county, said Prime Minister Ludovic Orban. He also called on the
    authorities responsible for daily inspections to ensure compliance with health
    protection measures. The Ministers of the Interior, Transport, Labor and Health
    are called upon to draw up a plan containing clear actions for the
    implementation of these measures



    The EC Report on the rule of law and Bucharest’s response


    The health crisis caused by the pandemic has consumed almost all
    the energy of the political actors in Bucharest. Thus, the commitment to put back
    on track the judiciary, severely affected by the controversial changes to the
    laws of justice and criminal and criminal procedure codes during the last
    left-wing government, seemed forgotten. In its latest report on the rule of law
    in Romania, the European Commission states that the laws of justice, the
    functioning of the National Audiovisual Council, access to public information
    and the excess of emergency ordinances are the main problems. The document
    emphasizes that in 2020, the Government reaffirmed its commitment to correct
    through judicial reforms the measures with negative impact adopted in the
    period 2017-2019, which led to the alleviation of tensions in the judiciary.

    According
    to the evaluation, the controversial measures with a negative impact on judicial
    independence continue to apply, such as the functioning of the Section for the
    Investigation of Crimes in the Judiciary, which deals exclusively with
    prosecuting crimes committed by judges and prosecutors. Further implementation
    of these measures increases uncertainty with regard to the functioning of the justice
    system, especially through the effects they have together, the European
    Commission warns. On the day the report was published in Brussels, in
    Bucharest, the Ministry of Justice launched a public debate on the proposals to
    amend the justice laws. They aim at strengthening the role of the Superior
    Council of Magistracy in organizing and conducting competitions and examinations
    through the National Institute of Magistracy and professionalizing the process
    of selecting magistrates by eliminating any means of entering the judiciary
    without competition. Also, the line ministry decided the elimination of the
    early retirement scheme for magistrates, the strengthening of the principle of prosecutor
    impendence in the judiciary and the dismantling of the Section for the
    Investigation of Crimes in the Judiciary.



    Less
    optimistic economic forecasts


    The European Bank for
    Reconstruction and Development has revised downwards its forecasts regarding
    Romania’s economic evolution in 2020 and 2021, as a result of the crisis
    triggered by the pandemic. According to the latest forecasts, Romania’s economy
    would record a 5% drop this year, as to the 4% estimated in May. For 2021, EBRD
    expects a 3% expansion of Romania’s GDP, against a 4% growth forecast in
    spring. Therefore, after a robust growth of 4.1% in 2019, Romania is facing
    recession in 2020. According to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development,
    the key transmission channels are lower consumption and declining exports. (M. Ignatescu)

  • The Week in Review 21-27 June, 2020

    The Week in Review 21-27 June, 2020

    The COVID-19 epidemic in Romania


    As containment measures are gradually eased, Romania is facing a worrying increase in the number of new coronavirus infections, and authorities once again call for responsibility. PM Ludovic Orban asked public institutions to run inspections and check whether protection rules are complied with.



    Whereas in previous weeks as many as 200-300 new cases were reported every day, this week a new peak has been reached, with over 450, the highest since the state of alert was introduced 2 months ago.



    The total number of cases in Romania so far is over 25,000, with the death toll standing at nearly 1,600. A growing number of hospitals are announcing they are unable to receive further patients. To free them, the authorities have decided that coronavirus patients with mild or no symptoms will only be hospitalized for 10 days, followed by a 14-day home isolation period under medical supervision.



    Meanwhile, the Constitutional Court ruled on Thursday that the self-isolation, quarantine and hospitalization of COVID-19 patients cannot be imposed under a minister order. According to the judges, this would be an infringement of individual rights and freedoms, and restrictions of this kind must be regulated by law.



    This Constitutional Court ruling was prompted by an Ombudsman notification regarding the 2006 law on public healthcare reform and the Government emergency order introducing measures to prevent and contain the COVID-19 pandemic.



    Corruption


    Adrian Ionel, the general manager of Unifarm, the Romanian state-owned company that handles the procurement of medical equipment for hospitals, is under court supervision ordered by anti-corruption prosecutors. He is investigated for taking bribes in exchange for assigning a procurement contract for surgical masks and protective coveralls. Prosecutors have also found that Adrian Ionel has illegally held this position since 2016. The Unifarm director denies the accusations.



    COVID 19 infections among Romanians working in Germany


    Around 1,000 Romanian employees of the biggest meat processing plant in Germany have tested positive for the novel coronavirus, according to data released on Thursday by the Romanian Foreign Ministry. According to the ministry, all the quarantined individuals receive food and hygiene products, and have a dedicated telephone line with information available in Romanian as well.



    In an interview to Radio Romania, the Ambassador of Romania to Berlin, Emil Hurezeanu, explained that many issues were settled in recent months thanks to the close cooperation between German authorities and the Government of Romania, which helped improve the situation of the Romanian nationals who work in that country.



    According to the Romanian diplomat, Germany will amend its legislation on the meat processing industry, where the number of inspections will be increased, along with the fines against the employers who breach employment contracts. More importantly, subcontractors will no longer be permitted, after repeated instances of subcontractors setting abusive working and housing conditions for the workers they were recruiting in Romania.



    Floods and Climate Change


    Extreme weather wreaks havoc on Romania where the latest flooding has caused casualties and significant material damage. Meteorologists and hydrologists have issued yellow, orange and even red alerts for heavy downpours and flooding in various Romanian regions.



    Three quarters of the Romanian counties have been affected by flooding and have seen the intervention of special emergency units, who pumped out water from households and basements. Several hundred people have been evacuated and temporarily relocated by the authorities.



    According to Romanian president Klaus Iohannis, the month of June has been the rainiest in the past 60 years and that has caused severe flooding and numerous issues in a very short period of time. He has pointed out to the fact that Romania has often been affected by devastating flooding and authorities in this country must be better prepared to handle suchlike phenomena.



    President Iohannis believes that the Romanians outlook on flooding must change and that the conservation of forests and reforestation campaigns are effective solutions for fighting flooding with beneficial effects for both the environment and for the protection of river banks.



    The IMF forecast on the Romanian economy


    The International Monetary Fund has significantly reviewed down its worlds economic growth forecast this year as the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have been stronger than anticipated, the institutions latest report has shown.



    Whereas the IMF April forecast stood at a 3% decline, now the institution expects a shrinking of 4.9% this year. The IMF believes Romanias economy will shrink by 5% this year and will recover in 2121 when a 3.9% growth is expected.



    The IMF has also forecast a 10.1% unemployment rate in 2020 from only 3.9% last year. In 2021 unemployment in Romania is expected to reach 6%.



    Romanias high school graduates have taken the baccalaureate exam in special conditions


    High school graduates in Romania have this week taken their graduation exam in special conditions. Students had their temperature taken by medical personnel before being admitted to classrooms.



    Because of the Covid pandemic, which led to the suspension of courses, the exam curricula this year didnt include the subjects on the second semester of the 12th grade. Oral exams have been eliminated and students in isolation or who have been confirmed infected will be allowed to take the exam in a different session due to commence on July 6th.


    (translated by: Ana-Maria Popescu, Daniel Bilt)

  • February 11, 2020

    February 11, 2020

    ELECTIONS In Bucharest, the PM designate Ludovic Orban has talks today with parliamentary party officials, in an attempt to garner support for the organisation of early elections. Snap elections may only be called if 2 Cabinet nominations are rejected by Parliament within 2 months. Orban, whose Liberal Cabinet was recently dismissed under a no-confidence motion, Monday sent to Parliament a list of ministers, with no changes whatsoever from the previous team, and a slightly updated government programme. The main party in Parliament, the Social Democrats, announced they will not take part in the talks with the Liberals. The Social Democratic Party filed a challenge with the Constitutional Court, arguing that the President designating a prime minister who has already been dismissed comes against the will of Parliament. On the other hand, the Social Democrats announced they would not hinder the procedures and announced a meeting of Parliament leaders to set a calendar for the hearings of the ministers designate. The idea of early elections is mainly supported by the National Liberal Party and Save Romania Union. Without a parliamentary majority, the Orban Cabinet has resorted more than once to pushing legislation through by requesting Parliaments confidence. Regular general elections are scheduled for this autumn.




    JUDICIARY The incumbent Justice Minister Cătălin Predoiu today in Bucharest presented European Commission experts with a bill on dismantling the special division investigating magistrate offences as well as the progress of debates on this topic. In its latest Cooperation and Verification Mechanism report the Commission criticised the establishment and the activity of this division, which it said was an instrument of political pressure. The latest report under the Mechanism was released in October 2019, and suggested the extension of verification on the Romanian judiciary, on grounds that in 2019 Romania backslid in terms of the fight against corruption and the independence of the justice system. A team of EC experts are in Bucharest until tomorrow, on an assessment mission. They are also scheduled to have talks today with leaders of the Higher Council of Magistrates and members of the judicial committees in Parliament.




    INFLATION The central bank has lowered Romanias 2020 inflation forecast from 3.1% to 3%, Governor Mugur Isărescu announced on Tuesday. For next year the National Bank expects a 3.2% inflation rate. A number of elements have been taken into account, which might lead to a decrease of the inflation rate from the forecast value. These elements include developments in the Eurozone economy, including geopolitical tensions and weaknesses in emerging markets, a possible escalation of trade conflicts, the completion of Brexit, as well as the accommodating monetary policies of the European Central Bank and the Fed. On the other hand, liberalisation of the electricity and natural gas markets may push inflation higher than expected, as do the problems in the labour market, such as the shortage of labour and the mismatch between demand and supply in this respect.




    112 February 11 is the European 112 Day, to celebrate the introduction of the Europe-wide emergency number 112. In Romania, the national emergency call system, run by the Special Telecommunications Service, was introduced in 2004. Last year STS operators managed over 11 million calls to this number.




    CORONAVIRUS China announced that the novel coronavirus has already killed more than 1,000 people, and the number of cases exceeds 42,000. In the last 24 hours alone, over 100 deaths have been reported, which is the largest number of victims in just one day since the epidemic broke out. Most deaths were reported in the Hubei province. A team of doctors with the World Health Organisation has arrived in China to help in the research. Meanwhile, the WHO organises a 2-day meeting in Geneva, with renowned physicians, public healthcare experts and scientists, in an attempt to encourage a better response of the international community to the new coronavirus outbreak. On opening the meeting, the WHO director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the coronavirus epidemic was a major threat, and called on scientists to work together to develop vaccines or medication to fight the virus. In Romania, several people, including Chinese nationals, are under house monitoring, and the authorities continue to take measures to prepare for possible infection cases. A special unit was set up in Bucharest for the Romanians who return from China and have to be quarantined for 14 days.




    AFGHANISTAN Reconstruction and stabilisation missions in Afghanistan had resulted by the end of 2018 in over 2,200 dead and 2,900 wounded, according to an official American report released on Tuesday with regard to the “human costs of these civilian and humanitarian missions. This is the first report focusing on reconstruction and stabilisation operations alone, including construction of infrastructure, hospitals and schools, military and civilian training, rather than on combat operations against the Taliban or other jihadist groups in the country. The report does not cover attacks on American military bases or on civilian targets either. Romania, which has been taking part in missions in Afghanistan ever since 2002, has lost 30 troops so far. In 2020, Romania has over 700 military deployed to Afghanistan under the Resolute Support mission.


    (translated by: Ana-Maria Popescu)

  • European economic forecasts

    European economic forecasts

    The growth rate of the Romanian economy will increase slightly this year, to 4.1% of the GDP, but will slow down to 3.6% and 3.3% in 2020 and 2021, according to the autumn economic forecast released on Thursday by the European Commission. Private consumption is expected to go down, but it will remain the main growth engine during the period in question, while available incomes will continue to be supported by an expansionary tax policy and a sound increase in salaries.



    The European Commission also expects the inflation pressures to ease in the forthcoming period. From an annual peak of 4.1% in 2018, the institution says, the consumer price index dropped to 3.5% in September this year, as energy and food prices decreased. The level is expected to stay around 3.9% this year and to get back within the National Banks target of 2.5% next year.



    On the other hand, the European Commission says both domestic developments and external factors may entail some risks. A possible slowdown affecting Romanias main trade partners, for instance, could impact the countrys exports. Domestically, a busy election calendar until the end of 2020 and the recent political uncertainties may defer the start of structural reforms and may affect the efforts to reduce macroeconomic imbalances.



    The European Commission also warns that the budget deficit will widen significantly on account of the public pensions expenditure. According to the autumn economic forecast, the government deficit is expected to go from 3% in 2018 to 3.6% this year, as a result of substantial pay raises in the public sector. The government deficit is likely to reach 4.4% of the GDP in 2020 and 6.1% of the GDP the following year, following the significant pension increases regulated this summer.



    As regards the Eurozone and the European Union on the whole, growth forecasts for this year and for the next 2 years were adjusted downwards. The GDP of the Eurozone is expected to increase by 1.1% in 2019 and by 1.2% in 2020 and 2021, whereas EU-wide the figure is put at 1.4% for each of the 3 years. The European Commission warns however that in the future member states may face difficulties triggered by trade conflicts, growing geopolitical tensions, Brexit and lingering deficiencies in the processing industry.


    (translated by: Ana-Maria Popescu)

  • 7 November, 2019

    7 November, 2019

    Economy. The growth rate of
    the Romanian economy will see a slight rise this year to reach 4.1% of the GDP,
    before slowing down to 3.6% in 2020 and 3.3% in 2021, according to the European
    Commission’s autumn forecast. Private consumption is expected to decrease but
    will nevertheless remain the main growth engine for the forecast period as
    disposable incomes continue to be supported by an expansionist fiscal policy
    and solid salary growth, the Commission’s report also says. Also, the
    Commission expects inflationist pressure in Romania to drop from 4.1% in 2018
    to 3.9% in 2019 and to return to the figure targeted by the National Bank of
    Romania, namely 2.5 plus/minus 1%, in 2020. The European Commission warns that
    the budget deficit will rise to 3.6% this year following significant pay rises
    in the public sector. The deficit level is expected to rise significantly in
    the following two years to 4.4% and 6.1% of the GDP following the pensions
    rises adopted in the summer of 2019, the European Commission has also emphasised.




    Government. Romania’s new prime
    minister, the Liberal Ludovic Orban, is today attending the handover of the
    ministries of health, education and research, public works, development and
    administration, the environment and forests, labour and culture. The new health
    minister Victor Costache has today warned that this field lacks the needed
    funds to end the year. He says a priority of his term is the organisation of
    the medical residency examination on the 8th of December, as agreed
    with the representatives of students. The minister of education Monica Anisie
    says she wants transparency in the decision-making process and measures to
    benefit young people. The new minister for public works, development and
    administration Ion Stefan says his number one priority is developing the gas supply
    network in Romania.




    Elections. From midday on Friday, local
    time, until Sunday evening, Romanian citizens living abroad have three days to
    cast their ballots and elect a president for the next five years. It’s for the
    first time that elections are taking place over a 3-day period in the Romanian
    diaspora, both in the first and the second round. The first round is taking
    place this week and the second between the 22nd and the 24th
    of November. The Romanians living abroad who have registered online can also
    vote by mail. The president of the Permanent Electoral Authority said recently
    that this year’s presidential elections in Romania are the most expensive so
    far. The total amount allocated is around 150 million euros, of which 50
    million is spent on the voting process abroad. To avoid long queues like in the
    past, 835 polling stations were created, twice as many as in the previous
    elections. In Romania, voters can cast their votes only on Sunday, on the 10th
    of November, and on the 24th for the second round. 14 candidates are
    in the race for the highest office, both from parliamentary and
    non-parliamentary parties and independents.




    Protest. 100 miners from the mines in Paroşeni and
    Uricani, in the centre-west, continue their protest, demanding a monthly
    supplementary income for two years for the people laid off when the mines close
    and for this period to be added up to their pension. Protesters say they will
    stay underground, where they have barricaded themselves since the beginning of
    last week until an emergency order is passed to guarantee protections for those
    who are laid off. A draft order document was discussed yesterday by the new
    government. Trade unions say this is the longest protest by Romanian miners in
    the last 15 years. The process to close and clean up the two mines began in
    2017. Also, tens of miners from the Ocna Dej salt mine in the north-west have
    barricaded themselves underground to protest against the fact that they have
    not received their holiday vouchers. For this reason, the salt production was
    suspended for a week at several salt mines in Romania.




    Table tennis. European
    champions Romania have reached the quarterfinals of the Women’s Table Tennis World
    Cup under way in Tokyo after defeating Vanuatu
    3-nil in Group C. Romania, who lost 1-3 to Taiwan on Wednesday, have finished
    second in their group with 3 points, after Taiwan with 4 points, and ahead of Vanuatu
    with 2 points. On Friday, in the quarterfinals, Romania will be facing Japan,
    who won a group that also included the United States and Austria. In the other
    quarterfinal matches, China face the US, Hong Kong face Taiwan and South Korea take
    on Ukraine. In September, Romania won the gold medal at the European table
    tennis championship in Nantes, in France, after defeating Portugal in the
    final.




    Football. The
    Romanian football champions CFR Cluj are facing the French side Rennes at home
    in a Group E match as part of the Europa League. In the first leg, Cluj won in
    Rennes 1-nil. In their first two group matches, CFR defeated Lazio Rome 2-1 at
    home and lost nil-2 to Celtic Glasgow away. The Scottish side are in the lead
    with 7 points, followed by CFR with 6 points, Lazio with 3 points and Rennes
    with 1 point.

  • Forecasts from Romania’s Central Bank

    Forecasts from Romania’s Central Bank

    The Romanian Central Bank (BNR) decided to maintain the monetary policy interest rate at 2.5% per year. According to BNR experts, the measure was based not only on the latest inflation developments, but also on the 4.1% economic growth in the second quarter of the year, the decreasing annual household consumption, a rise in productivity as well as significantly increased exports. Other reasons that influenced the BNR decision, were the negative contribution of investment to economic growth as well as the slowdown in the positive annual dynamics of the credit granted to the private sector.



    The BNR experts believe that inflation will maintain its downward trend this year and next year as well. However, this tendency is going to be less significant in 2019. BNR Governor Mugur Isarescu has said the information is going to be confirmed in a week by the National Commission for Statistics.



    Mugur Isarescu: “According to our forecast, inflation is going to continue on a downward trend in the months to come — and this is clearly mirrored in the data issued for next week — a significant drop in the inflation rate up to the interval’s higher ceiling of 3.5%. Data we have processed show this tendency is likely to continue next year as well, although to a lower extent; now we are going to see the sharpest drop from 5 to 3.5 and like I said, it will be felt next year as well.”



    According to the BNR official, the inflation rate component, made up of the prices influenced by the monetary policy instruments, are already being reduced. This is — Isarescu explains — the inflation that remains after the elimination of the administered and volatile prices, the prices in tobacco products and drinks, upon which the influence of the monetary policy is less significant or even close to zero.



    At domestic level, uncertainties and inflation-related risks have as their main source the prices in natural gas, electricity, food and tobacco as well as the labour market fluctuations, the fiscal and income policy — Mugur Isarescu explained. According to the BNR official, also relevant are foreign factors, such as fluctuations in fuel prices on the world’s market, the growth pace of the Eurozone and the global economy, against protectionist tendencies and Brexit uncertainties as well as the monetary policies of the European Central Bank and the central banks in the region.



    In another development, the BNR governor hailed the way in which the analysis on Romania’s accession to the Eurozone is being carried out, and the fact that debates have been extended to the level of civil society, research institutes and universities. The National Committee created for this purpose is this month expected to present the timetable and the plan for the adoption of the European single currency.