Tag: interest rates

  • January 15, 2025 UPDATE

    January 15, 2025 UPDATE

    CULTURE DAY In Romania, January 15 was National Culture Day, marking the birth date of the national poet Mihai Eminescu. This year was all the more special as it celebrated the 175th anniversary of the birth of the greatest Romanian poet of all times. Many events took place in Bucharest and throughout the country, including conferences, debates, concerts and exhibitions, and entry to many museums was free. The Bucharest National Opera celebrated National Culture Day on Wednesday evening with a gala performance celebrating Romanian culture as expressed in faith, art and identity. The “Luceafărul” exhibition was opened at the Bruckenthal National Museum in Sibiu, the Lyric Theatre in Iași scheduled a special performance, while an exhibition called “Past, Present and Future” was opened at the Corvin Castle. On National Culture Day, the Radio Romania Culture channel invited a teenager from Vâlcea (south) to the theatre for the first time. With this symbolic gesture, the only national radio station dedicated exclusively to the arts calls on people and institutions to facilitate access to culture for their peers.

     

    PROTEST The ‘CulturMedia’ National Federation of Culture and Press Trade Unions protested on Wednesday, on National Culture Day, wearing white armbands, to warn against the underfunding of the culture sector and the salary inequities to which employees of museums, libraries and cultural centers are subjected. The Federation demands that 1% of GDP be earmarked for Culture, that the salaries of museum and public library employees be brought in line with the education payment scheme, the elimination of the huge salary disparities between employees of performing arts institutions and employees of public museums and libraries, bonuses for work carried out on weekends and public holidays, as well as the payment of overtime. The unionists also demand that hiring be resumed, to counter the chronic personnel shortage in cultural institutions.

     

    BUDGET The VAT will not be increased, Romania’s PM Marcel Ciolacu promised, after talks on the 2025 state budget bill with the finance minister, Tánczos Barna, and with the head of the national tax administration agency, ANAF. Ciolacu added the tax reform is expected to help bring down the inflation rate and increase people’s spending power. PM Marcel Ciolacu reiterated that the 2025 state budget bill will be passed by the government by the end of this month and will subsequently be sent to Parliament, for review and endorsement in the first week of the legislative session due to begin in February. He also said that the 7% deficit target agreed with the European Commission will be maintained, as will the target of 7% of GDP for investments. The PM also said that last year state revenues went up by 27%, and this year a roughly 30% increase is expected. The main indicators for the 2025 budget will be presented at Thursday’s government meeting. Also on Thursday, the Cabinet is to approve the presidential election timetable.

     

    INTERESTS The Board of Directors of the National Bank of Romania has decided to keep the key interest rate at 6.5% per annum. Also, the lending facility interest rate stays at 7.50% per annum, the deposit facility interest rate at 5.50% per annum, and the minimum reserve requirements for banks’ national and foreign currency liabilities will also stay unchanged. Last year, the central bank lowered the key interest rate twice, in July, from 7% per annum to 6.75% per annum, and in August to 6.5% per annum. The key interest rate had not been changed since January 2023. According to the bank, the annual inflation rate rose in the last three months of 2024 more than expected, to 5.14% in December, from 4.62% in September. The National Bank estimates the inflation rate will decrease in the first quarter of 2025, but slower ​​than previously expected. Significant uncertainties and risks related to inflation arise from the future tax and revenue policy, given the implementation of the set of tax and budget related measures recently approved by the Government for the purpose of fiscal consolidation, but also from the situation on the labor market and the wage dynamics in the economy. At the same time, significant uncertainties continue to be linked to the evolution of energy and food prices, as well as to future developments in the crude oil market, amid geopolitical tensions, central bank experts argue.

     

    ELECTION The MP Emanuel Ungureanu (Save Romania Union) has filed a criminal complaint with the Prosecutor General’s Office against Romania’s Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu and the head of the Timiş County Council, Alfred Simonis. Ungureanu said the complaint was related to the the two officials’ TikTok chat about redirecting votes from the Social Democratic party to the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians candidate George Simion in last year’s presidential elections. He accused Ciolacu and Simonis of corrupting voters and misusing influence and authority to obtain undue benefits, as well as preventing the exercise of electoral rights. Emanuel Ungureanu called on prosecutors to question the heads of Social Democratic Party branches and to conduct computer searches to see if the call to direct votes to George Simion and Călin Georgescu circulated on the Social Democrats’ WhatsApp groups. (AMP)

  • February 14, 2024

    February 14, 2024

    VISIT A Romanian
    delegation headed by PM Marcel Ciolacu is on a visit to Rome as of today. The
    main item on the agenda is the 3rd joint meeting of the 2 countries’
    governments, held 13 years
    after the previous inter-governmental summit. An economic forum will also be organised,
    attended by business people from the 2 countries. PM Ciolacu has meetings today with
    members of the Romanian community in Italy, and is to be received by His
    Holiness Pope Francis at the Vatican. Also today, the Romanian official has
    talks with the Mayor of Rome, Roberto Gualtieri. On Thursday Marcel Ciolcacu
    will have an official meeting with the PM of Italy, Georgia Meloni, followed by
    joint press statements. Italy is home to the largest Romanian community abroad,
    comprising more than 1.1 million citizens, and is Romania’s second-largest
    trade partner, with exchanges accounting for approx. 9.5% of the country’s
    foreign trade.


    CYBER ATTACK Several hospitals in Romania, including
    in Bucharest, have been targeted by a cyber-attack that encrypted data on their
    servers, the National Cyber Security Directorate (DNSC) announced. Most of the
    healthcare units affected by the incident had safety copies of their data.
    According to the health ministry, exceptional security measures have been
    implemented, with many units in the healthcare system disconnected from the
    internet for further inquiries. The Directorate Investigating Organised Crime
    and Terrorism Offences has started a criminal investigation.


    FARMERS The European Commission has officially endorsed a regulation which
    grants a one-year exemption from the rule requiring farmers to keep 4% of their
    arable land fallow. The rule, designed to help improve environment
    conditions, had sparked protests across the EU, including in Romania. In exchange, farmers
    are now required to grow nitrogen fixing crops such as lentils or peas. The new
    regulation is intended to give farmers more flexibility, while also protecting
    biodiversity and land quality. The measure is to be applied for the year 2024. Member
    States have 15 days to notify the Commission of the implementation option that they
    choose out of the 2 alternatives available.


    STUDENTS Romanian schoolchildren may
    have free of charge access to museums, concerts, theatre and opera shows,
    movies and other cultural and sports events organised by public institutions,
    within approved budgets, under a new bill passed in the Senate and backed by
    all parliamentary parties. In a society threatened by the absence of role
    models, museums and other informal learning venues should be available to
    students free of charge, and this facility is an investment in their
    educational future, the bill authors argue. The draft law is to be forwarded to
    the Chamber of Deputies for the decisive vote.


    TRANSPORTS Special lanes for EU and third-country lorries will be
    operational in several Romanian checkpoints as of this week, the public road
    company has announced. This is one of the measures agreed on with the carriers
    that have been protesting in Romania over the past month, and it is designed to
    reduce waiting times at the border. Moreover, carriers will no longer be
    charged additional fees for weight 5% over the accepted ceiling. A new round of
    talks on separate flows for EU and non-EU lorries was held on Tuesday by the
    transport ministry, the public road company and road transport operators.


    INTERESTS The
    National Bank of Romania has decided to keep the monetary policy interest rate
    at 7% per year, the institution announced. The key interest rate has not been
    changed since last January, when the National Bank decided to raise it from
    6.75% to 7% per year. A balanced mix of macroeconomic policies and structural
    reforms, including the use of EU funding to encourage the country’s growth
    potential in the long run, are vital to maintaining macroeconomic stability and
    to strengthening the Romanian economy’s capacity to withstand negative
    developments, the institution said.

    NATO Eighteen NATO member states will reach the 2% of GDP defence allocation
    target in 2024, the NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg announced on
    Wednesday, ahead of a meeting of NATO defence ministers. According to Reuters, he
    also said that EU member states will invest a combined USD 380 bln in defence
    this year. The decision to earmark at least 2% of GDP to defence dates back to
    2006, but only some member states have reached this target. After Russia
    invaded Ukraine in February 2022, NATO member countries reiterated this
    commitment. Romania has channelled over 2% of its GDP for defence for several
    years, and after the start of the war in Ukraine it has committed to invest
    2.5% of GDP in Army equipment. (AMP)

  • Rising Trade, Falling Interest Rates

    Rising Trade, Falling Interest Rates

    In Romania, trading businesses registered a 9% increase in the first two months of this year as compared to the same period in 2022, show the latest data from the National Institute of Statistics. Thus, in February compared to January, trading of agricultural products had an increase of almost 27%, while trading of foodstuffs by only 4.6%. These indicators are important, in the opinion of economic analyst Constantin Rudniţchi, because they show the dynamics of the economy and consumption.



    Constantin Rudniţchi: “We can see that, despite these discussions and complaints about the Ukrainian cereals, this year, at least the agricultural products trading area is on first place in terms of growth, which points to the dynamism of this field. We also see lower figures in relation to food products, which is certainly the result of inflation. Also this lower growth figure shows us that consumption is also slowing down. We could expect this situation, because inflation almost forces consumers to reduce their consumption or buy cheaper products.



    In addition, analyst Constantin Rudniţchi says, in the next period there could be a slowdown in trading activities, given that inflation remains high and economic growth forecasts are decreasing compared to last year. According to the National Institute of Statistics, the annual inflation rate dropped to a little over 14.5% in March, from 15.5% in February, as foodstuffs prices rose by over 21%, and the prices of non-foods and services by 11%. However, the National Bank of Romania expects the annual inflation rate to decrease faster than previously anticipated, especially starting from the third quarter of this year, against the background of the extension of energy price capping and compensation schemes.



    On the other hand, Romanias central bank announces that the ROBOR indices continue their downward trend, and the rates should decrease slightly as of the middle of the year. The three-month ROBOR, according to which the basket of consumer loans in lei with variable interest is calculated, fell to the lowest value since July last year. In early 2023, the index was over 7.5%. According to the national bank data, the six-month ROBOR, used to calculate interest on mortgage loans in lei with a variable interest rate, also fell below 7% per year. (LS)

  • National Bank regulations for interest rates

    National Bank regulations for interest rates

    The National Bank of Romania has decided to maintain the monetary policy interest rate at 2.5% per year. According to an official release, the decision is primarily aimed at ensuring the stability of prices on the long term, considering the latest estimates have confirmed the downward trend of the annual inflation rate. Financial analyst Cornel Cojocaru told Radio Romania that the decision reflects certain economic elements that point to the downward trend of the inflation rate.



    Cornel Cojocaru: “This decision tells us, on the one hand, that the Central Bank has a growing confidence in the descending curb of the inflation rate, down to 3.5%, and possibly even to 3% in 2019. Of course, there are uncertainties and risks regarding prices for foodstuffs, because after all this is only an estimate. In turn, fuel prices, the developments on the global oil market, prices for gas and electricity, as well as the evolution of the labor market and fiscal policy come with additional uncertainty”.



    Cornel Cojocaru believes, however, that the Bank’s decision leaves room for maintaining a 4% quarterly GDP growth. Moreover, the financial analyst says the price volatility is on the wane while the exchange rate has stabilized. According to National Bank Governor, Mugur Isarescu, the Central Bank seeks to give the exchange rate increased credibility when it decided to increase the monetary policy interest rate relatively early. For half a year, the national currency has been under fire due to certain statements, estimates and analyses that showed the rate was depreciating or exceeding certain ceilings. Governor Isarescu said the measure turned out to be the right call, given that this year the Leu was more stable than other regional currencies. As regards measures the Bank is preparing in order to put a cap on maximum public debt, Governor Isarescu claims these are not meant to limit lending, but are meant as a precautionary action.



    Mugur Isarescu: “Our actions are grounded on sound lending. Credit owners should best evaluate their possibilities to pay back the loans, so that we should no longer face unpleasant surprises, where the population and the corporate sector find they can no longer pay back their loans. These are matters of financial stability that stir our concern. Along similar lines, it would be best for the industry as well to reduce the number of underperforming loans”.



    Economic pundits claim the National Bank seeks to keep consumption in check, considering it has become an unsustainable engine for economic growth in a country such as Romania.


    (Translated by Vlad Palcu)