Radio România Internațional

Tag: National Forecast Commission

December 23, 2024

COALITION – The president of Romania, Klaus Iohannis, has designated Social-Democrat leader Marcel Ciolacu for the position of Prime Minister. The new pro-European coalition stands good chances of continuing Romania’s good track record, following the undeniably good economic results obtained and the Schengen accession, the president said. “I believe they will successfully deal with current issues such as budget construction and the calendar for the 2025 presidential election”, the president went on to say. Also today, the new ministers will appear before Parliament’s special committees, which will be followed by the debate and the confidence vote in a joint plenary sitting. Previously, the leaders of PSD, PNL, UDMR and the leader of the group of national minorities signed a political agreement to form a Parliament majority and a government. Social-Democrat president Marcel Ciolacu stated that the duty of the parties is to defend democratic values, Romania’s trajectory in the EU and NATO, as well as national values and identity. PNL interim leader Ilie Bolojan said that his party signed the agreement to form a stable government, which will carry out reforms during a difficult period. He announced that former Liberal leader Crin Antonescu is the coalition’s joint candidate for the upcoming presidential election. UDMR president Kelemen Hunor stated that the current coalition seeks to gain people’s trust in order to overcome the political deadlock, and the first challenges are adopting the 2025 budget and organizing the presidential election as soon as possible next year. The representative of national minorities (other than the Hungarian one), MP Varujan Pambuccian, said that this coalition seeks to maintain political, economic and social stability.

PARLIAMENT – PSD MP Ciprian Șerban was earlier today elected Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies in the new Parliament. The interim leader of PNL, Ilie Bolojan, was elected Senate Speaker. We recall that four pro-European parties entered Parliament – PSD, PNL, USR, UDMR – and three self-proclaimed sovereigntist parties, AUR, SOS Romania and POT.

FORECAST – The National Strategy and Forecast Commission has significantly downgraded its economic growth forecast for 2024 from 2.8% previously to 1%, amid an accelerated decline in activity, especially in industry and agriculture. The only sector with a positive estimated impact was services. In its autumn forecast, published in November, the European Commission estimates that the Romanian economy will report an economic slowdown this year, up to 1.4%, but the gradual recovery of external demand, the easing of financial conditions, resilient private consumption and an acceleration of investments will support economic growth up to 2.5% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026.

COMMEMORATION – In a message conveyed on Revolution Victory Day, President Klaus Iohannis said that Romania is “at a turning point” and must firmly reject attempts to revise history, which aim to “defame the memory of the heroes of democratic Romania and mystify the truth about the dictatorial regime”. The head of state pointed out that the freedom for which the heroes of the Revolution sacrificed themselves is “more alive and present than ever” today, 35 years on. A number of events were held throughout the country to mark the anti-communist revolution of 1989, with participants recalling protesters’ aspirations back then for democracy and a European path for Romania.

BORDER POLICE – The border police in Romania expects a significant increase in traffic flows at the border checkpoints, especially on the Hungarian border, given that many Romanian citizens are coming home from the holidays from European countries. Over 3,500 border police officers carry out nationwide surveillance and control activities on a daily basis, also with a view to preventing and combating cross-border crime. According to a press release published by the Border Police, if the situation requires it, additional lanes will be opened up to the maximum working capacity in crossing points that get crowded. (VP)

23 December 2024
Economic Forecasts

Just like most European Union Member
States, Romania has reported a significant economic growth for 2017 and is
anticipating similar results for 2018. Our country has all the more reason to
feel proud, as there is a wide percentage gap separating it from the other
Member States. Take France, for instance, whose GDP last year hit its highest
level in the last six years, standing at merely 1.9%. Romania on the other hand
had a 6% growth rate, which made France Press news agency label it as Europe’s
tiger.

On Sunday, the National Forecast Commission made public its
predictions for 2018, upgrading to 6.1% its GDP growth forecast. At the same
time the Commission maintained its forecast for 2019 and 2020 at 5.7% and at 5%
for 2021. Although positive, the forecasts of Romania’s external partners are
less optimistic. The European Commission expects Romania’s economic growth to
stand at 4.4% in 2018, which mirrors the latest forecast of the International
Monetary Fund. The World Bank estimates a 4.5% GDP growth rate, whereas the
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development estimates a growth rate of
4.2%.

Yet what makes Romanian economy so competitive? What is the secret behind
this success, in a country facing severe labour shortage, rising migration and
waning demographics? While the repeated Governments of the ruling coalition in
Romania, made up of the Social-Democratic Party and the Alliance of Liberals
and Democrats, have taken credit for Romania’s bolstering growth in 2017,
Romanian citizens themselves are more likely to have contributed to this
phenomenon, by increasing consumption.

Both economic pundits and Central Bank
experts agree that Romania’s growth rate is likely to slow down in 2018,
evidence of which can be found in the latest forecasts by international
financial institutions. It’s unlikely, experts argue, that the authorities will
be able to uphold the current growth parameters, given that this was the effect
of salary increases. In a recent report, a commercial bank in Romania points
out that the recent fiscal uncertainty and populist measures have kept
investments away.

Moreover, should the Government resort to additional tax
increases and cuts in public spending so as to observe the 3% budget deficit
target, this might further slow down economic growth. As for the industrial
output, it is expected to go up due to the rising demand on European markets.
Still, imports are expected to rise faster than exports, as they cover a large
part of the domestic demand. Therefore the coming years might prove relatively
difficult for the Romanian economy, and the tiger might turn out to be yet
another bubble.

5 February 2018
Economic Forecasts

Just like most European Union Member
States, Romania has reported a significant economic growth for 2017 and is
anticipating similar results for 2018. Our country has all the more reason to
feel proud, as there is a wide percentage gap separating it from the other
Member States. Take France, for instance, whose GDP last year hit its highest
level in the last six years, standing at merely 1.9%. Romania on the other hand
had a 6% growth rate, which made France Press news agency label it as Europe’s
tiger.

On Sunday, the National Forecast Commission made public its
predictions for 2018, upgrading to 6.1% its GDP growth forecast. At the same
time the Commission maintained its forecast for 2019 and 2020 at 5.7% and at 5%
for 2021. Although positive, the forecasts of Romania’s external partners are
less optimistic. The European Commission expects Romania’s economic growth to
stand at 4.4% in 2018, which mirrors the latest forecast of the International
Monetary Fund. The World Bank estimates a 4.5% GDP growth rate, whereas the
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development estimates a growth rate of
4.2%.

Yet what makes Romanian economy so competitive? What is the secret behind
this success, in a country facing severe labour shortage, rising migration and
waning demographics? While the repeated Governments of the ruling coalition in
Romania, made up of the Social-Democratic Party and the Alliance of Liberals
and Democrats, have taken credit for Romania’s bolstering growth in 2017,
Romanian citizens themselves are more likely to have contributed to this
phenomenon, by increasing consumption.

Both economic pundits and Central Bank
experts agree that Romania’s growth rate is likely to slow down in 2018,
evidence of which can be found in the latest forecasts by international
financial institutions. It’s unlikely, experts argue, that the authorities will
be able to uphold the current growth parameters, given that this was the effect
of salary increases. In a recent report, a commercial bank in Romania points
out that the recent fiscal uncertainty and populist measures have kept
investments away.

Moreover, should the Government resort to additional tax
increases and cuts in public spending so as to observe the 3% budget deficit
target, this might further slow down economic growth. As for the industrial
output, it is expected to go up due to the rising demand on European markets.
Still, imports are expected to rise faster than exports, as they cover a large
part of the domestic demand. Therefore the coming years might prove relatively
difficult for the Romanian economy, and the tiger might turn out to be yet
another bubble.

5 February 2018