Radio România Internațional

Tag: OPEC

  • Geldpolitik: Nationalbank hält am Jahreszinssatz von 7 % fest

    Geldpolitik: Nationalbank hält am Jahreszinssatz von 7 % fest





    Die jährliche Inflationsrate wird in Rumänien in den kommenden Monaten weiter nachhaltig sinken, schätzt die Nationalbank. Die Institution ist jedoch der Ansicht, dass Unsicherheiten und Risiken im Zusammenhang mit dem Krieg in der Ukraine bestehen bleiben; au‎ßerdem müsse eine nachhaltige Finanzpolitik in Rumänien darauf bedacht sein, die Reduzierung des Haushaltsdefizits mit Ma‎ßnahmen zur Unterstützung der Bevölkerung und der Wirtschaft in Einklang zu bringen. Die Zentralbank hat daher beschlossen, den Zinssatz bei 7 % pro Jahr zu belassen, damit die Kreditzinsen in den kommenden Monaten nicht weiter steigen.



    Von diesem Indikator hängen die sich im Umlauf befindende Geldmenge, der Wechselkurs der rumänischen Währung, die Marktzinsen und andere Hebel der Wirtschaftspolitik ab. Zum ersten Mal seit November 2021 hat der Vorstand der Nationalbank den Zinssatz unverändert belassen, bis dahin war er immer wieder angehoben worden. Der Finanzanalyst Adrian Codirlașu sagt, die Entscheidung sei vorhersehbar gewesen und werde keine wesentlichen Auswirkungen auf die Zinssätze der Handelsbanken haben:



    Es wurde praktisch keine geldpolitische Entscheidung getroffen, was von den Märkten weitgehend erwartet worden war. Daher sind die Auswirkungen auf die Entwicklung der Geldmarktzinsen äu‎ßerst begrenzt. Die Geldmarktzinsen befinden sich in einem Abwärtstrend, doch der ROBOR-Interbanken-Darlehensindex wird nicht unter 6 fallen. Daher könnten die eher langen Laufzeiten weiter sinken, sobald sich auch der Trend zur sinkenden Inflation bestätigt. Der Konsumkredit-Index (IRCC) ist in diesem Quartal auf seinem Höhepunkt. Ab dem nächsten Quartal wird es bereits einen leichten Rückgang geben, der Index wird von 5,98 vielleicht auf 5,93–5,94 sinken. Er wird in diesem Jahr also nicht wesentlich unter 6 fallen. Wahrscheinlich wird er im nächsten Jahr stärker fallen, wenn die Zentralbank wohl auch die erste Zinssenkung vornehmen wird.“



    Aktuellen Einschätzungen zufolge wird die jährliche Inflationsrate in den kommenden Monaten wahrscheinlich verstärkt sinken, jedoch bleiben gewisse Unsicherheiten und Risiken bestehen. Der Finanzexperte Adrian Codirlașu nennt im Folgenden die wichtigsten:



    Das Hauptrisiko bleibt der Krieg in der Ukraine, der in der gesamten Region oder sogar EU-weit noch für negative Überraschungen sorgen kann. Die OPEC+, d.h. die OPEC plus Russland, haben angekündigt, dass sie die geförderte Ölmenge reduzieren werden, um den Preis auf dem internationalen Markt zu erhöhen. Falls diese Rechnung aufgeht, wird das zur Inflation führen, was tatsächlich auch eine Erhöhung des Ölpreises bringen wird. Damit bleibt die Energie ein Faktor der Verwundbarkeit, aber auch die Unwägbarkeiten des Krieges tragen zur Verunsicherung bei.“



    Unsicherheiten und Risiken ergeben sich auch aus den Turbulenzen im Bankensektor der USA und der Schweiz, die sich negativ auf die Wirtschaft der Industrieländer und die Risikowahrnehmung in Mittel- und Osteuropa auswirken könnten, was wiederum die Finanzierungskosten in Mitleidenschaft ziehen würde.

  • Inflation drops

    Inflation drops

    The annual inflation rate will continue to decrease in Romania at a sustained pace in the coming months, the National Bank estimates. The Central Bank officials say, however, that uncertainties and risks remain in the context of the war in Ukraine, and also of the fiscal policy in Romania, which should reconcile the need to reduce the budget deficit with support measures for the population and the economy. The Central Bank decided to maintain the monetary policy interest rate at the level of 7% per year, so that, in the coming months, loan interest rates should not increase. The amount of currency in circulation, the exchange rate, market interest rates, and other levers used to achieve economic policy targets depend on this indicator. It is the first meeting of the BNR management when the monetary policy interest rate is kept unchanged, given that it has continuously increased since November 2021.



    Financial analyst Adrian Codirlaşu says that the decision had been anticipated and that it would not have a significant impact on the interest rates charged by banks: Basically, no monetary policy decision has been made, which was widely expected by the markets too. Therefore, the impact on the evolution of interest rates on the money market is extremely low. We see that the money market interest rate is on a downward trend, but the ROBOR index will not drop below 6. Therefore, the long maturities might continue to decrease once the disinflationary process is confirmed. The consumer loan reference index – IRCC in this quarter is at its maximum value. As of the next quarter, there will already be a slight decrease, from 5.98 maybe to 5.93-5.94. It will not go significantly below 6 this year. It will probably decrease more next year, when the Central Bank will probably operate the first interest rate decrease.



    According to current assessments, the annual inflation rate will probably accelerate its decline in the coming months, but a series of uncertainties and risks persist. Adrian Codirlaşu mentioned the two main ones: The war remains a main risk, which can still bring negative surprises in this region or even in the whole EU. OPEC Plus, i.e. OPEC plus Russia, announced that they are reducing the amount of oil, with the aim of increasing the price on the international market. This will be reflected in inflation if the price remains high, or, if this operation succeeds and the price of oil really increases. So, the energy issue remains a vulnerability, not to mention the uncertainties related to war.



    Uncertainties and risks are also generated by the turbulences in the banking systems in the United States and Switzerland, which could have adverse effects by affecting the economies of developed states and the perception of risk in Central and Eastern Europe, with an impact on financing costs. (LS)

  • December 1, 2016

    December 1, 2016

    NATIONAL DAY – Romania’s National Day is marked each year on December 1 by all Romanian citizens in the country and abroad as well as in the theaters of operations where Romanian military are participating in international missions. Military parades have been organized in several cities of Romania and the authorities have prepared concerts, traditional public meals and fireworks shows. The most important parade was held in Bucharest with the participation of more than 3 thousand military and experts with the National Defense Ministry, the Interior Ministry and the Intelligence Service. Also parading were military technology and tens of aircrafts among which the multirole F-16Fighiting Falcon, the latest acquisition of the Romanian Air Forces. This year the parade held in Bucharest paid homage to the heroes killed in WWI in the context in which Romania marked in 2016 100 years since it entered the War. Military detachments from Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Slovakia, the Republic of Moldova, Poland, Spain and the US have participated, for the first time, in the National Day parade. The National Day is also being celebrated abroad through various cultural events organized by the Romanian Cultural Institute Representations in cooperation with Romania’s diplomatic missions.



    MESSAGES ON DECEMBER 1 – The Romanian President Klaus Iohannis has congratulated all Romanians on the occasion of the National Day. According to him the significance of this day should inspire all Romanians to be united in order to be able to fulfill their ideals. In turn, the PM Dacian Cioloş conveyed a message in which he referred to the Great Union of 1918, which he considered a miracle of history. Romanians also received messages of congratulation on the National Day from the US authorities and the President Barack Obama, through the agency of the American Secretary of State John Kerry. The message highlights the importance of the bilateral Strategic Partnership, the fact that Romania remains a trustworthy ally within NATO, which contributes significantly to international peace and security. Also the US State Department hails Romania’s commitment to the values of democracy and hopes the December 11 parliamentary elections will be free and fair.



    OPEC — The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries announced Wednesday in Vienna the first cut in production since the financial crises of 2008, with the price of the oil barrel skyrocketing by 8%, to reach 50 dollars, writes the Financial Times. The 13 member states of the cartel will reduce production by almost 4.5% or 1.2 million barrels per day to reach 32.5 million barrels per day. Production targets are to be set for each of the member states. Analysts expect Saudi Arabia to operate the most significant cut in production alongside its allies in the Gulf area. In exchange Iran is to freeze production to almost 3.8 million barrels per day. As of mid 2014 the oil barrel price has been halved due to overproduction.



    RETURN GUIDE – The Department of Policies for the Relation with the Romanians in the Diaspora within the Romanian Foreign Ministry has drafted and published a “Return Guide” for the Romanians living outside Romania. The document was drawn up based on the questions asked by those Romanians who intend to return home and includes basic information and useful contacts that could make their reintegration in Romania easier. According to estimates made by the Foreign Ministry, between 3.5 and 4 million Romanians are now living abroad.



    EUROSTAT – In 2015 households in Romania allotted almost 22% of their total consumption expenses for their homes, water supply, electricity, gas and other fuels as compared to 21% in 2005, show the latest data made public by the European Statistical Office. At the level of the EU, families allotted a quarter of the money for consumption to these expenses, the total sum of 2 thousand billion euros accounting for the largest category of household expenses in the member states. (translation by L. Simion)