Tag: rate

  • Romania of the barefoot children

    Romania of the barefoot children

    Recent data provided by
    Eurostat for 2023 have revealed that of the entire European Union, Romania is
    the country were the poverty or social exclusion rate for children saw a 0.4% growth,
    over 2020 and 2021. Actually, the aforementioned rate stands at 41.4%. Romania
    is followed by Spain, a country that has a 33.4% poverty or social exclusion
    rate. Finland and Denmark stand at the upper end of the scale, with a poverty or
    social exclusion rate of 13% and a 14%, respectively, among their children.


    If
    we have a closer look at Romania, the rural regions fare a great deal worse
    than the urban areas. In 2021, in the major cities we had a poverty or social exclusion
    rate of 16.1%. Poverty or social exclusion rate in the smaller cities and the
    suburbs stood at 30.7%, while the aforementioned rate in the rural region
    accounted for 50.1%. The economic crisis of the last two years took its
    toll on the little ones, so much so that their families were unable to buy their
    children clothing or footwear, since the household incomes plummeted.


    Of
    the entire Europe, our children have been hardest-hit by the daily inflation
    rate. Against this backdrop, the non-governmental organizations play a critical
    role. To that end, we sat down and spoke to Gabriela Alexandrescu, the
    executive president of Save the Children, the organization that for almost 30 years
    not has been totally working for our most underprivileged children. We asked
    her what the weakest point was, of our underprivileged children.


    First of all, we need to say that, unfortunately, Romanian children are
    exposed to poverty and social exclusion risks. Of all European Union countries,
    we have a 2 to 5 ratio of children in such a condition (that is 41.5%) as
    compared to the EU level, where 1 in 4 children experiences the poverty limit (almost
    25%). The survey we have carried among the vulnerable families we have been working
    with has revealed that this cost-of-living crisis hit them the hardest. The
    over whelming majority (that is almost 95% of the families) face problems in
    their attempt to cover their basic needs, such a medical treatment, food,
    clothes for children. To be more specific, I should say that, in the course of last
    year, 71% of the vulnerable families gave up on their clothes and footwear
    expenses, while 24 % of them have cut down on their food expenses, which is extremely
    serious because, unfortunately, the poverty we have been speaking about, the
    poverty affecting children also leads up to their inability to continue to be
    registered in the educational system. A child living below the poverty threshold
    is a malnourished child, with a frail health and standing meagre chances to
    overcome the vulnerabilities of his environment. Poverty kills education. This
    is the very label of a campaign Save the Children has been carrying, Poverty
    Kills Education. And it is our responsibility to mitigate the effect poverty
    has on children, as much as we can.


    There is yet another
    weak point we need to take into account, that of the children whose parents
    work abroad. Whether we speak about both parents or about only one, or the
    single parent who, being desperate, leave their children in the care of the grandparents
    and go to work abroad, the situation does not look good at all. Save the Children has
    been working with tens of thousands of children in this condition. We’re speaking
    about a quiet social catastrophe, with long-term repercussions.

    Save
    the Children’s Gabriela Alexandrescu:


    As we all know, over 5 million Romanians went to work
    abroad, longer term or for a limited period of time. I must say that over
    half a million children had, in the last year, at least one parent who went to
    work abroad, and almost a million children in Romania are, or were, affected by
    the departure of one or both parents. It is quite a serious situation for the
    children left at home, because for them, the departure of a parent is felt as
    trauma, most of the time, the biggest one so far. Based on the background of
    emotional vulnerability incurred, they are more prone to the risk of dropping
    out of school and the emergence of emotional and behavioral disorders. We see
    this in our daily work from 2009 until now, and it is important to address all
    these aspects, because the psychological balance of the child is significantly
    affected. We see many children with anxiety, depression, feelings of
    loneliness, abandonment, which are reflected in sleep disorders, eating
    disorders, excessive weight gain, significant behavioral imbalances. It is
    important to be careful, to work with these children in particular. I am
    referring especially to those children who have both parents gone, or the
    single parent gone, because there is also a significantly higher risk of
    falling behind in school, of being involved in school violence, truancy,
    dropping out of school. It is, as I said, a trauma that children express and
    feel in different ways, and we must be there, next to them, and support them
    materially, educationally, but especially emotionally, to get through a
    difficult period from their lives.


    Moreover, Save the Children
    has intensified programs for the recovery of children from vulnerable
    environments.

    Gabriela Alexandrescu:


    In the
    year 2023, it was important for Save the Children to intensify the
    school dropout prevention, school reintegration and socio-pedagogical support
    programs for children who are victims of poverty. We have worked with more than
    42,000 children, we have provided direct services for 12,000 children
    (kindergarten and summer school programs, school after school, second chance)
    and educational and social support to continue their studies. We have worked
    with another 10,000 children, who benefited from improved educational services
    as a result of teacher training, we intensified training programs for
    specialists (almost 250 teachers were co-opted in such programs). We also
    ensured decent, much better learning conditions in 40 units schools through
    renovations, equipment, provision of supplies, books for school libraries, as a
    result of which almost 20,000 children have benefited from this. And
    previously, ‘Save the Children’ had an extremely extensive involvement in
    ensuring the prevention of school dropout and the improvement of school results
    for many children. Before 2023, we worked with almost 150,000 children to help
    them go to school, to provide them with additional education, material support,
    support for their families, to improve their home conditions, to provide
    children with an environment conducive to learning. We invested a lot in the
    educational recovery of children who did not go to school, or dropped out of
    school, and then helped them start the educational process again. We had a lot
    of school after school groups, in over 20 counties and Bucharest. We are very
    much involved in this direction, because it is clear that, without education,
    the present and the future of a child are uncertain.

  • December 16, 2023 UPDATE

    December 16, 2023 UPDATE

    BUDGET The 2024 state budget and social security budget bills will be reviewed by Parliament’s specialist committees as of Monday. On Tuesday the draft laws will be discussed in a joint plenary
    meeting, with a final vote expected on Wednesday. The budget is based on a 3.4%
    economic growth rate, with investments amounting to 7% of GDP and the largest
    appropriations in history for public education. PM Marcel Ciolacu dismissed
    claims that the figures are over-optimistic, and voiced his confidence that budget
    revenues would be raised from 27% to 30% of GDP. Under the bill, as of June 1
    whole-economy minimum wages will be around EUR 745. Ciolacu also said he was
    counting on better EU fund absorption, on improved tax collection and on
    curbing tax evasion.


    EU President Klaus Iohannis says the EU winter summit, which came to an
    end in Brussels on Friday, will be remembered for the historic decision to
    initiate accession negotiations with Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova. The
    Romanian official encouraged the government of Moldova to step up the reforms
    required for EU integration. As for Ukraine, the president of the European
    Commission,Ursula von der Leyen, says
    the decision was a promise kept and an investment in stability and security. EU
    leaders also discussed the Israel-Hamas war, and condemned the continuing
    hostilities with growing numbers of victims among Palestinian civilians in Gaza
    and the West Bank. They argued that peace will only be achieved through a
    two-state solution. A revision of the 2021-2027 Multi-Annual Financial
    Framework, support for Ukraine, security and defence, migration and the future
    EU Strategic Agenda were also discussed at the European Council meeting on
    Thursday and Friday in Brussels.


    COMMEMORATION In Timişoara (west) events were organised to mark 34 years
    since the start of the 1989 Revolution which eventually led to the fall of
    dictator Nicolae Ceauşescu’s communist regime. The rally in support of the
    Reformed pastor László Tőkés, who was under political police (Securitate)
    surveillance, turned into an uprising against the communist dictatorship. In
    this context, the Revolution Memorial was opened to the public in Timişoara on
    Saturday. The organisers prepared a complex programme, providing information on
    the events of 1989. The commemoration also includes exhibitions, concerts, a
    special meeting of the Local Council, and a commemorative march. In this
    context, the Senate Speaker Nicolae Ciucă said in a message that the sacrifice
    and courage of Timişoara’s heroes were the foundation of today’s free and
    democratic Romania.


    UNEMPLOYMENT Around 63% of the Romanians aged 15 to 64 had a job in
    July-September, according to the National Statistics Institute. The
    unemployment rate was 5%, but among youth aged 15 to 24 the rate reaches 22%. The
    economic analyst Constantin Rudniţchi says the INS data is not very different
    from previous reports and that the Romanian labour market is below its
    potential. As for unemployment, he believes the overall trend is to look for
    and to create jobs. Rudniţchi believes the most urgent issue to be the one
    million Romanians who are outside the social and employment system, i.e. who
    are neither in school nor employed.


    AGREEMENT Romania, Turkey and Bulgaria intend to sign an agreement on
    January 11, 2024, concerning a joint plan to remove mines floating in the Black
    Sea as a result of the war in Ukraine, the Turkish defence minister Yasar Guler
    said, according to Reuters. Officials from the 3 NATO member states met with
    the authorities of Georgia, Poland and Ukraine in April 2022 to discuss the
    issue, and also discussed the plan in a NATO meeting in Brussels in October and
    in Ankara, last month. Yasar Guler explained that the initiative will only
    include Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria for the time being, and the signing
    ceremony will take place in Istanbul.


    FAIR A special Christmas fair was opened at the Săvârşin Castle of
    Romania’s late King Michael I. The organiser, Her Majesty Margareta, Custodian of
    the Crown of Romania, said the event was intended to promote and preserve the
    authenticity of Christmas traditions. It is something spiritual, and we often
    forget that Christmas has grown a little too commercial. So we are glad to have
    valuable people here, she said. On the estate in Arad County, western Romania,
    a Royal Automobile Museum, a souvenir shop, the auto repair shop of King
    Michael I and a Tea House are also opened to the public. During the event, carol
    performances and handicraft exhibitions are also organised for the visitors. (AMP)

  • November 10, 2023

    November 10, 2023

    JUDGE Through
    a UN vote, Romania’s former Foreign Minister Bogdan Aurescu has become one of the
    judges of the International Court of Justice in The Hague. It is for the first
    time a Romanian has obtained such a position and for the first time when no
    Russian candidate has been elected. The UN success reflects Romania’s firm
    commitment for the international rule-based order, Romanian president Klaus
    Iohannis says. According to the Foreign Ministry in Bucharest, Aurescu’s new
    position is a victory of the Romanian diplomacy as well as the recognition of
    his professionalism and expertise. Aurescu, 50, is a member of the UN
    International Law Commission and foreign policy advisor of the Romanian
    president. Between 2004 and 2009, he was Romania’s agent for the International
    Court of Justice and played a major role in the Romanian-Ukrainian file over
    the maritime delineation in the Black Sea.






    REPATRIATION 41 Romanian
    citizens left the Gaza Strip on Thursday through the Rafa Border Crossing as a
    result of the moves made by the inter-institutional crisis unit through the Romanian
    embassy in Cairo and Romania’s Representation Office in Ramallah, the Foreign
    Ministry has announced. They are to arrive in Romania in the following days.
    The Foreign Ministry recalls that a group of 93 Romanian citizens and their
    families arrived in Romania on Wednesday and the Romanian diplomacy is
    continuing the dialogue with the Israeli and Egyptian authorities with the view
    to easing the evacuation of the other citizens according to the latest
    developments and the agreement of the parties involved.






    TENNIS Romanian tennis
    player Gabriela Ruse today takes on Mia Ristic in the first single match
    pitching the women tennis sides of Romania and Serbia in the play-offs of the
    Billie Jean King Cup in Kraljevo, Serbia. In the second single match, Cristian
    will be up against Krunic. On Saturday, the Romanian will be taking on Ristic,
    a match which will be followed by that pitching Ruse against Krunic. The
    doubles will oppose the pair made up of Katarina Kozarov and Natalija
    Stefanovic to Irina Bara and Monica Niculescu. Serbia has a 2-1 lead in the
    head-to-head competitions and the victor will be playing in the qualifyiers for
    the competition’s final tournament, whereas the defeated will go to Group 1. We
    recall that Romania lost to Slovenia 3-2 in April and failed to qualify for the
    final tournament.






    RATE Romania’s
    Central Bank governor Mugur Isarescu is today presenting the trimestral report
    on inflation. The aforementioned updated report reconfirms the forecast of the
    inflation’s downward trend in the following two years with an impetus in 2024
    but slightly lower than previously forecast. So the annual inflation rate is
    expected to increase at the beginning of the new year, under the impact of the
    freshly raised taxes and duties and gradually decrease in the following
    trimesters. The inflation’s downward trend is expected to gain momentum in
    2025.




    (bill)

  • May 3, 2023

    May 3, 2023

    BANK The foreign currency reserves of the
    National Bank of Romania were in excess of EUR 53 bln at the end of April, up 0.21%
    compared to the previous month. The gold reserves stay at 103.6 tonnes. High
    forex reserves ensure investor confidence, analysts explain, adding that this
    was mostly due to EU fund receipts.


    UNEMPLOYMENT The unemployment rate in Romania dropped slightly, from
    5.5% in February to 5.4% in March, but unemployment among youth remains high,
    at 22.2%, the National Statistics Institute reports. The number of people
    between the ages of 15 and 74 receiving unemployment benefits in March was over
    453,000, a decrease compared both to the previous month of this year and to the
    corresponding period in 2022. Among men, the rate was 5.8%, whereas the
    proportion of unemployed women was 5%. For adults aged 25 to 74, the
    unemployment rate stood at 4.4%.


    CORONATION Margareta, Custodian of the Crown of
    Romania, and the Prince Consort, will take part on Saturday in the coronation
    of King Charles III of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland,
    the Royal House of Romania announced today in a Facebook post. In the 157 years of existence of the Royal House of
    Romania, the connection with the British royal family has been steady, based on
    admiration, respect and affection, both in its official dimension, representing
    the two nations, and in its private, family aspect, reads the post. The Royal
    House adds that this reliable relationship has spanned the 19th, 20th
    and 21st centuries and five generations.


    PRESS The World Press Freedom
    Day celebrated on the 3rd of May occasioned the opening of a special
    exhibition at the National Romanian Literature Museum in Bucharest. The event
    was organized jointly with the Romanian Union of Professional Journalists. The
    exhibition, which opens a series of events devoted to journalists in all fields,
    is intended as a starting point for a future Museum of Romanian Press. The World
    Press Freedom Day was proclaimed by the UN General Assembly in 1993, and is
    designed to highlight the importance of and the need for freedom of expression.


    EDUCATION A draft law regulating higher education in Romania was
    approved by the specialist committee in the Chamber of Deputies, with a number
    of amendments. Among other things, grants and training programmes will be
    offered every year to Romanians from abroad who wish to study in Romania. Welfare
    grants may be received concurrently with other types of grants, should student
    meet relevant criteria. As for salaries, higher education institutions may
    increase salaries within their approved budgets. Fines have also been
    introduced, ranging from EUR 20,000 to 40,000, for those who sell BA, MA or
    doctoral theses online, in violation of intellectual property rights. The new
    laws on the undergraduate and higher education sectors will most likely be
    subject to voting in the Chamber of Deputies next week. The Senate is then to take
    its final vote.


    GRAINS The European Commission
    announced exceptional and temporary preventive measures on imports of
    a limited number of products from Ukraine. They concern only 4 products-wheat, maize,
    rapeseed and sunflower seed-and are designed to alleviate logistical
    bottlenecks concerning these products in Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and
    Slovakia. Meanwhile, Romania will receive an additional EUR 30 bln
    to support farmers affected by the cheap grains imports from Ukraine. (AMP)

  • Romania has higher inflation rate

    Romania has higher inflation rate

    In November 2022, Romania’s inflation rate stood at
    16.8% exceeding the forecast announced by the Central Bank governor, Mugur
    Isarescu, of 16.3%. That has been the highest inflation rate in the past two
    decades. In 2002, Romania reported an annual inflation rate of 22.5% and from
    2005 until last year the country had only single-digit inflation rates.


    This alarming pace seemed to be
    slightly going down at the beginning of the year, but went up again last month
    as compared to January from 15.07 to 15.52% against the latest price hikes in food
    products and services. Figures released on Monday by the National Institute for
    Statistics prove that the prices of these products and services saw the highest
    increase in the first months of the year, but experts say this shouldn’t alter
    the forecast by the Central Bank (BNR) according to which the inflation rate will
    again return to single digits towards the end of the year.


    Food prices saw the most significant
    increase in February by roughly 3.4%, while services rose by 2.5%. At the same
    time, prices in non-food products slightly dropped by 0.5% on an average.


    Significant price hikes were registered last month in
    the category of fresh and canned vegetables, up by 6.35% followed by the fresh
    fruits with roughly 4.9% and services for making and mending clothes and
    footwear over 3.5%.


    Prices in fresh fish, cheese, personal hygiene and
    care products as well as other non-food products have grown between 2% and 3%.


    Prices in air transport services went down by more
    than 12%, whereas prices for cooking oil, electricity and heat by 1% on an
    average. According to the latest forecasts, prices were supposed to continue
    their downward trend, but experts said this process isn’t a linear one. The
    same tendency has been noticed in other EU countries as well where the
    inflation rate in February proved to be higher than a month before.


    According to experts, this process of keeping
    inflation at bay is likely to continue but will have its monthly ups and downs.
    In a Radio Romania interview, the financial expert and Central Bank advisor,
    Adrian Vasilescu, has confirmed this theory.


    In the meantime, the INS data show that Romania’s
    trade deficit in January stood at 2.338 billion euros, 203.6 million higher
    than in January 2022. The rise was partly caused by the growing inflation,
    which raised the imports value, but the main cause is the fact that the
    domestic output cannot cover the demand, not even in sectors with tradition,
    such as the agro-food industry, the chemical or the car-making sectors. Experts
    say that the authorities should step in and take action in order to prevent the
    situation from worsening.


    (bill)

  • Economic growth in Romania

    Economic growth in Romania

    Romania
    reports the highest economic growth rate in the European Union compared to the
    previous quarter, on the same level with Cyprus, while other member states have
    seen growth rates below 1% or even negative rates.


    The
    first estimates made public by the National Statistics Institute indicate that
    in the 3rd quarter of the year, the Gross Domestic Product went up 1.3%
    compared to the previous quarter and by 4.7% compared to Q3 2021. The data, the
    institution explains, was adjusted by seasonality and number of working days.


    For
    the first 9 months of the year, the economic growth was estimated at 4.3% compared
    to the corresponding period of last year.


    With
    the new data included in the quarterly reports, the Statistics Institute has
    revised downwards both the growth rate for the first quarter of this year, from
    6.4 to 4.4%, and the rate for the second quarter, from 5 to 3.9%, compared to
    the corresponding previous quarters.


    The
    economic analyst Constantin Rudniţchi believes that, while Romania’s economy
    has a strong seasonal factor to take into account, such substantial corrections
    are not desirable, because they may have a negative impact on companies’
    business plans.


    Constantin
    Rudniţchi: An investor interested in opening a business in Romania may take
    this decision based on this 6.4% economic growth rate, because obviously such a
    rate, quite exceptional under the current circumstances, makes a market
    attractive to investors. But if the growth rate is smaller, only 4%, of course
    they will think twice. So these figures may influence an investment decision.


    Economic
    growth figures also influence all the decisions concerning pensions and wages, and
    if statistics change so much, it means those decisions were mistaken, which is
    by no means a good thing for the economy, Constantin Rudniţchi also says.


    An
    incurable optimist, the PM Nicolae Ciucă promises Romania does not risk a
    recession:


    Nicolae
    Ciucă: We have taken measures to strengthen the economy, to keep it in balance
    so as not to go into recession. The data we have available at this point
    clearly indicates that by the end of the year Romania may well have a roughly
    5% economic growth rate, and for next year we expect an economic growth rate of
    around 1.5%.


    Nonetheless,
    forecasts coming from major international financial institutions are rather
    gloomy and point to a slowdown of the global economy. And a perfect storm, i.e.
    a mixture of elements such as the war in Ukraine, the rise in energy prices and
    the inflation pressure, may hit hard some national economies. (AMP)

  • Economic growth in Romania

    Economic growth in Romania

    Romania
    reports the highest economic growth rate in the European Union compared to the
    previous quarter, on the same level with Cyprus, while other member states have
    seen growth rates below 1% or even negative rates.


    The
    first estimates made public by the National Statistics Institute indicate that
    in the 3rd quarter of the year, the Gross Domestic Product went up 1.3%
    compared to the previous quarter and by 4.7% compared to Q3 2021. The data, the
    institution explains, was adjusted by seasonality and number of working days.


    For
    the first 9 months of the year, the economic growth was estimated at 4.3% compared
    to the corresponding period of last year.


    With
    the new data included in the quarterly reports, the Statistics Institute has
    revised downwards both the growth rate for the first quarter of this year, from
    6.4 to 4.4%, and the rate for the second quarter, from 5 to 3.9%, compared to
    the corresponding previous quarters.


    The
    economic analyst Constantin Rudniţchi believes that, while Romania’s economy
    has a strong seasonal factor to take into account, such substantial corrections
    are not desirable, because they may have a negative impact on companies’
    business plans.


    Constantin
    Rudniţchi: An investor interested in opening a business in Romania may take
    this decision based on this 6.4% economic growth rate, because obviously such a
    rate, quite exceptional under the current circumstances, makes a market
    attractive to investors. But if the growth rate is smaller, only 4%, of course
    they will think twice. So these figures may influence an investment decision.


    Economic
    growth figures also influence all the decisions concerning pensions and wages, and
    if statistics change so much, it means those decisions were mistaken, which is
    by no means a good thing for the economy, Constantin Rudniţchi also says.


    An
    incurable optimist, the PM Nicolae Ciucă promises Romania does not risk a
    recession:


    Nicolae
    Ciucă: We have taken measures to strengthen the economy, to keep it in balance
    so as not to go into recession. The data we have available at this point
    clearly indicates that by the end of the year Romania may well have a roughly
    5% economic growth rate, and for next year we expect an economic growth rate of
    around 1.5%.


    Nonetheless,
    forecasts coming from major international financial institutions are rather
    gloomy and point to a slowdown of the global economy. And a perfect storm, i.e.
    a mixture of elements such as the war in Ukraine, the rise in energy prices and
    the inflation pressure, may hit hard some national economies. (AMP)

  • BNR crește, din nou, dobânda de referință

    BNR crește, din nou, dobânda de referință

    Banca Națională a României a crescut dobânda-cheie la 6,25%, în ciuda faptului că aşteptările pieţei vizau o creştere mai redusă. Aceasta este cea mai ridicată din ultimii 12 ani. Banca centrală majorează dobânda de politică monetară pentru a tempera inflația. Din această cauză, dobânzile interbancare, pe baza cărora se calculează şi indicii folosiţi la stabilirea ratelor împrumuturilor în lei cu dobândă variabilă, vor înregistra majorări în perioada următoare, spune vicepreşedintele Asociației Profesioniştilor în Investiţii din România, analistul financiar Adrian Codirlaşu:



    BNR anticipează majorarea, în continuare, a inflaţiei şi a venit cu această majorare de dobândă de 75 de puncte de bază, peste anticipaţiile pieţei. Acest lucru va avea ca impact continuarea creşterii ratelor de dobândă din piaţa monetară, adică a ratelor ROBID şi ROBOR. În acelaşi timp, Banca Centrală menţionează faptul că se aşteaptă la o încetinire puternică a creşterii economice. Ce înseamnă acest lucru? Înseamnă că există un risc măcar de recesiune tehnică în următoarea perioadă în România, deci poate vom avea şi trimestre în care PIB-ul va scădea faţă de trimestrul anterior.”



    Experţii BNR arată că cele mai recente date sugerează o încetinire puternică a creşterii economiei în trimestrul al treilea faţă de cel precedent. Cu toate acestea, se va înregistra, totuşi, o majorare semnificativă a dinamicii anuale a Produsului Intern Brut în acest interval, pe seama unui efect de bază, dar în condiţiile încetinirii creşterii consumului privat. Tot Adrian Codirlaşu:



    BNR anticipează o încetinire a economiei, însă, rămâne economia pe plus, adică vom avea creştere economică, însă mult mai mică decât estimările iniţiale. Următoarea şedinţă este în noiembrie şi probabil va fi o nouă majorare, undeva la 25-50 de puncte de bază. Am putea ajunge la final de an cu rata de dobândă de politică monetară la valoarea de 6,50 sau 6,75.”



    Potrivit specialiştilor Băncii Centrale, rata anuală a inflaţiei va continua, probabil, să mai crească spre finalul anului, dar într-un ritm vizibil încetinit, cauzele fiind legate de scumpiri mai mari anticipate la gazele naturale şi energie electrică, precum şi la alimente, pe fondul războiului din Ucraina, dar şi al secetei prelungite şi extinse la nivel european din această vară.



    Escaladarea războiului şi sancţiunile tot mai severe asociate generează incertitudini şi riscuri considerabile la adresa perspectivei activităţii economice şi, implicit, a evoluţiei pe termen mediu a inflaţiei, mai spun experţii BNR. Ei apreciază că, în contextul actual, o combinaţie echilibrată de politici macroeconomice şi implementarea de reforme structurale, inclusiv prin utilizarea fondurilor europene, sunt esenţiale pentru menţinerea stabilităţii macroeconomice şi întărirea capacităţii economiei româneşti de a face faţă unor evoluţii nefavorabile.






  • September 12, 2022 UPDATE

    September 12, 2022 UPDATE

    AGREEMENT Romania and France signed a
    transport agreement in Paris on Monday pledging to support the shipment of Ukrainian
    grain to the countries needing it. The Romanian authorities have announced they
    will cooperate with their French counterparts to draw up a medium-term strategy
    for the corridors making the connection between Romania and Ukraine, including
    those through the ex-soviet, Romanian-speaking Republic of Moldova. The
    agreement with Romania will allow Ukraine to ship more grain to Europe and the developing
    countries, particularly in the Mediterranean, which are facing food shortages,
    the French Transport Minister Clement Beaune said. According to the French
    official, more than a third of the exported grain goes to developing countries.








    INFLATION Romania’s annual inflation rate went up to 15.32% in August
    from 14.96% in July. According to data published by the National Statistics
    Institute on Monday, foodstuffs prices went up by 18.22%, while those for
    non-food products also went up by 15.98%. Prices for services increased by
    8.26%. The Central Bank has increased its inflation forecast for 2022 to 13.9%,
    estimating an inflation rate of 7.5% for 2023. The Central Bank expects the
    deflation trend to temporarily stop in the second quarter of 2023, once the
    current state-aid schemes targeting the energy sector end. The Central Bank
    expects an inflation rate of 2.3% for June 2024.










    QUEEN King Charles III on Monday said that
    Parliament is the living and breathing instrument of our democracy. In his
    first speech before the two houses of the Legislature at Westminster Hall, King
    Charles said Queen Elizabeth II ‘set an example of selfless duty’ pledging to
    follow her example of commitment to a constitutional government. The coffin of
    Her Majesty, Elisabeth II, was taken from the Palace of Holyroodhouse in
    Edinburgh to St. Giles Cathedral with a procession attended by Charles and
    royal family members. The coffin will be flown to London on Tuesday and taken
    to Buckingham Palace before being moved to the Palace of Westminster the next
    day, where the queen will lie in state until her funeral on September 19.






    ENERGY The European Commission is this week
    expected to present the set of proposals agreed upon in Friday’s meeting of EU
    Energy Ministers, designed to combat the energy crisis. The package might
    include a cap on energy prices and taxing the excess profits of fossil fuel
    companies and redistributing the revenues to state-aid schemes. Romania’s
    Energy Minister, Virgil Popescu, says Romania supports a balanced approach
    towards all Member States. Capping natural gas prices at community level would
    significantly curb volatility on the EU energy market, the Romanian official
    said.


    (bill)

  • Găilipserli a româñilor

    Găilipserli a româñilor

    Două cirecuri ditu româñi minduescu că tru kirolu ţi yini va s’yină ună criză economică cabaia mari, iara aesta easti prota furñie di găilipseari tru aestă perioadă, spunu rezultatili a unlui unui sondaj faptu di compania di cercetare sociologică Avangarde tru dzălili ditu soni a aluştui mesu. Maş 3% ditu româñi mindueescu că nu va s’yină criza economică. Uidisitu cu sondajlu, prinţipalele furñii di găilipseari a româñilor sunt inflația, criza energetică provocată di Rusia, criza alimentară și tru un proţenu ma ñicu criștearea a ratilor la bănţă. Tu ţi mutreaşti inflația, giumitate ditu atelli ntribaţ spusiră că suntu găilipsiţ di creastirea aliştei. Sondajlu spuni că dauă cirecuri ditu români apufusiră s’tragă mănă di la ma multi lucri tra s’ţănă keptu a dalgăllei di scunkiri. Aproapea un român ditu doi spuni că ancupără ma pţăni alimente şi 14% ditu aţelli ntribaţ declară că trapsiră mănă tra s’ancupără strañi. Ari ama și un procent important ditu atelli ntribaţ cari spun că nu ñicurară consumlu – aproapea 20%, iara 10% nu pot s’apreciadză.



    După inflaţie, româñilli să spunu găilipsiţ di criza energetică şi di criza alimentară. Mulț ditu aţelli cari au sisteme di ngăldzari pi bază di gaz diclară că acaţă tru isapi s’inveastiască tru surse alternative, di itia a facturilor mări. Tru cazlu ali energie, majoritatea a românilor au investită ică va u facă tru echipamente cari să’lli agiută să scadă consumul. Tru general, tru ţi mutreaşti criza energetică, aproapea 4 români ditu 10 minduescu că Rusia va s’bagă tru dificultate Europa tru aestă iarnă și va s’dănăsească didipu furnizarea di gaze cătră aesta. Ma mulță români sunt cu nădie, ama, și minduescu că lidirlli ali Uniuni va s’află cearei tra s’năstreacă criza energetică cauzată di ună eventuală curmari completă a furnizarillei di gaze. Un cirecu ditu aţelli ntribaţ spun, ama, că nu pot s’minduească cari va s’amintă ditu aestu agiocu. Tru idyiulu kiro, 39% să spunu căndăsiţ că resursele naturale ţi li ari România va u agiută s’nu agiungă pi ună criză energetică la iarnă. Un cirecu ditu aţelli antribaţ nu suntu căndăsiţ di aestu lucru. Di altă parte, sondajul nica spuni că maş 1 român ditu 10 easti găilipsitu di creastirea a ratilor la mpărmuturi.


    La capitolul finanţe personale, ma multu di un cirecu ditu români diclară că nu au băgată păradz nanăparti, iar altu cirecu că au economisită ma pțănu ndicra di anlu tricutu. Mult ma pțăñi români spun că economisesc idyea ca tru 2021 ică bagă ma multă păradz nanăparti comparativ cu anlu precedintu. Chestionarlu nica spuni că un cirecu ditu români s’așteaptă ca tiñia a nicukiratiloru va s’crească, un procentu aproapea isa s’armână idyea și multu ma puțăñi români minduescu că tiñiili a nicukiratiloru vas ă scadă. Sondajul Avangardi fu adratu tru kirolu 24 – 30 di agustu, pi un eșantion di 880 di subiecță, intervievaț pritu telefon.



    Autoru: Daniela Budu


    Armânipsearea: Taşcu Lala









  • Îngrijorările românilor

    Îngrijorările românilor

    Două treimi dintre români cred că în perioada următoare va veni o criză economică de amploare, iar acesta este principalul motiv de îngrijorare în această perioadă, arată rezultatele unui sondaj făcut de compania de cercetare sociologică Avangarde în ultimele zile ale acestei luni. Doar 3% dintre români sunt de părere că nu va veni criza economică. Potrivit sondajului, principalele motive de îngrijorare ale românilor sunt inflația, criza energetică provocată de Rusia, criza alimentară și într-o mai mică proporție creșterea ratelor la bănci. Cât privește inflația, jumătate din cei chestionați s-au declarat preocupați de creşterea acesteia. Sondajul arată că două treimi dintre români au decis să renunţe la mai multe lucruri pentru a face faţă valului de scumpiri. Aproape un român din doi spune că a cumpărat mai puţine alimente şi 14% dintre cei intervievaţi declară că au renunţat la haine. Există însă și un procent important dintre cei chestionați care spun că nu au redus consumul – circa 20%, iar 10% nu pot aprecia.

    După inflaţie, românii se arată îngrijorați de criza energetică şi de criza alimentară. Mulți dintre cei care au sisteme de încălzire pe bază de gaz declară că iau în calcul să investească în surse alternative, de teama facturilor mari. În cazul energiei, majoritatea românilor au investit deja sau o vor face în echipamente care să îi ajute să scadă consumul. În general, în privinţa crizei energetice, aproape 4 români din 10 cred că Rusia va pune în dificultate Europa în această iarnă și va opri complet furnizarea de gaze către aceasta. Mai mulți români sunt optimiști, însă, și cred că liderii Uniunii vor găsi soluţii pentru a depăși criza energetică cauzată de o eventuală sistare completă a furnizării de gaze. O treime dintre cei întrebați spun, totuși, că nu pot aprecia cine va câştiga din acest joc. În același timp, 39% se declară convinși că resursele naturale de care dispune România o vor ajuta să evite o criză energetică la iarnă. Un sfert dintre cei chestionați nu sunt convinși de acest lucru. Pe de altă parte, sondajul mai arată că doar 1 român din 10 este îngrijorat de creşterea ratelor la credite.

    La capitolul finanţe personale, mai mult de o treime dintre români declară că nu au pus bani deoparte, iar altă treime că au economisit mai puțin decât anul trecut. Mult mai puțini români spun că economisesc la fel ca în 2021 sau că pun mai mulți bani deoparte comparativ cu anul precedent. Chestionarul mai arată că o treime dintre români se așteaptă ca prețurile proprietăților să crească, un procent aproape egal să rămână la fel și mult mai puțini români cred că prețurile proprietăților vor scădea. Sondajul Avangarde a fost realizat în perioada 24 – 30 august, pe un eșantion 880 de subiecți, intervievați prin telefon.


  • August 8, 2022 UPDATE

    August 8, 2022 UPDATE


    UKRAINE UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, on Monday called for the access of international inspectors to the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia after Ukraine and Russia traded accusations over the recent shelling of the largest nuclear facility in Europe situated in an area occupied by the Russian troops in southern Ukraine. The facility has been shelled twice in the past days but no radioactive leak has been detected. Ukrainian authorities do not rule out the risk of a nuclear catastrophe in the region and have made an appeal for setting up a demilitarized area around the plant. In turn Russia hopes that some of the Western countries with big influence over Ukraine, will use this influence to prevent further shelling of this nuclear facility by the Ukrainian army, Dmitri Peskov, spokesman for the Kremlin, has said.



    COVID-19 Health Minister Alexandru Rafila on Monday said the total number of weekly Covid-19 infections had been reduced by five thousand in Romania of late. According to the official, this drop is likely to carry on after one week or two. On Monday, authorities in Romania announced roughly 4,700 new infections, most of them in capital Bucharest, in Hunedoara, in the west, Cluj in the north-west and Brasov in central Romania. Almost 43 hundred people are being treated in hospitals 274 of whom in ICUs. 14 related fatalities have also been reported in the past 24 hours.



    AGRICULTURE According to Agriculture Minister Petre Daea, by 2027 Romania must have some 2.6 million hectares of irrigable land for which 1.5 billion Euros will be earmarked from the national budget. The minister wrote on a social network that the implementation of the governments programme on upgrading the irrigation system must be done every day, without interruption. According to official data released, almost 243,000 hectares of land in 30 Romanian counties have been affected by drought this year.



    RATE The monetary policy rate has been increased as of Monday by 0.75%, to 5.5% per year. This is the sixth increase in the key rate this year, a tool by which the Romanian Central Bank tries to keep inflation at bay. Before the decision announced by the Central bank on Friday, the 3-month ROBOR index went up from 8.11% to 8.12% per year, reaching 8.14% per year on Monday. Financial experts are expecting this index to go up significantly, which will raise variable interest rates on loans. Interest rates on mortgage loans have gone up by more than 50% since the beginning of the year and have almost doubled as against six years ago. Inflation in July exceeded 15% and is expected to stand at this level in the third quarter. The Central Bank will present a new quarterly report on inflation on Tuesday.


    (bill)

  • More expensive loans

    More expensive loans


    The 3-month ROBOR index, based on which the costs of consumer loans in domestic currency with variable interest rate are calculated, continues to rise, and has reached 8.11% per annum. The last time the index was higher, namely 8.15%, was on February 1, 2010, the central bank says. Early this year, the index was 3% per year.



    Almost half of the loans in domestic currency taken out in Romania are currently based on the ROBOR index. The financial analyst Adrian Negrescu says a lot of Romanians now have to pay 50% or even 80% higher instalments then last year.



    A first solution would be to switch to the consumer loan reference index (IRCC), so that instalments may drop for 1-2 years, Adrian Negrescu believes:



    Adrian Negrescu: “In order to switch from Robor to IRCC, borrowers only need to go to the bank where they have taken out the loan and submit an application, which is usually resolved within 30 days. It is a lawful request that banks are bound to comply with as quickly as possible. If indeed the bank in question denies the application, which is a possibility, the solution is to take the matter to the Banking Dispute Settlement Centre (CSALB), an institution that helps people, free of charge, to negotiate new lending terms and conditions with banks.”



    Another option is loan refinancing, based on offers from various banks. For those who lose their jobs, the only solution is to postpone repayment for a few months, until they manage to get hired.



    Adrian Negrescu: “For those experiencing difficulties, i.e. who fail to get a new job, personal bankruptcy or transferring an asset in lieu of payment are 2 other options that may help them get rid of the burden of a loan they can no longer afford.”



    The financial analyst also warns that as long as inflation remains high, interest rates will continue to go up. He says ROBOR is expected to reach 9% in the forthcoming period.



    A rise in the key interest rate is the most frequently used measure by central banks, which are in charge of securing price stability, when they try to keep inflation in check. To reduce the cash available in the market, they raise interests and thus deter further borrowing. But the measure also impacts older loans, in that it pushes variable interests up. The more expensive the loans given by central banks to commercial banks, the higher the interest rates in the interbank market.



    At European level, several central banks have increased interest rates because of the global economic situation. Europe has been struggling with the COVID-19 pandemic, which has upset supply chains, and in addition, since February, the war in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia have been shattering the energy market. (AMP)


  • August 4, 2022 UPDATE

    August 4, 2022 UPDATE


    INTEREST The 3-month ROBOR index, based on which the cost of consumer loans in lei with variable interest is calculated in Romania, rose on Thursday from 8.05% to 8.11% per annum, the highest level in the last 12 years. In early 2022, the index was 3% per year. Rates on mortgage loans and “First house” loans have increased by 50% since the beginning of the year and almost doubled as compared to a few years ago. IRCC, the reference index for consumer loans, is 2.65% p.a., up from 1.86% three months ago. In the last three months, more than 10,000 beneficiaries of the “First house” programme have requested to switch from ROBOR to IRCC for calculating loan interests.



    AIR FORCES As of August 4, the Canadian Royal Air Force is conducting an air policing mission in Romania. According to the defence ministry, a unit of 180 troops and 6 CF-188 Hornet aircraft, will operate under NATO command in the next 4 months, jointly with Romanian Air Force units, while another 2 aircraft will take part in drills organised jointly with NATO allies. This is the 6th rotation of Canadian troops at Romanias Mihail Kogălniceanu air base since 2017. Canadian forces were also deployed in Câmpia Turzii in central Romania in 2014. The presence of the CF-188 Hornet aircraft in Romania is part of the action plan for ensuring NATO operational capability in the eastern flank, and proves the Alliances unity and determination in response to recent security challenges, the Romanian defence ministry said.



    COVID-19 Three military hospitals in Romania have reopened wards for treating COVID patients. In Sibiu (centre), patients have five beds available, with another five available in Cluj Napoca (north-west). The Emergency Military Clinical Hospital in Timisoara (west) also reopened the Modular Medical Isolation and Treatment System, where patients have already been admitted. More than 4,000 people infected with coronavirus are currently hospitalised in Romania, and the number of those in Intensive Care is around 300. On Thursday, more than 8,600 new infections with SARS-COV-2 were announced in 24 hours. The authorities also reported 27 deaths.



    TAIWAN The Chinese army Thursday fired missiles towards the Taiwan Strait, shortly after the start of military drills around the island, France Presse and Reuters reported. China initiated large-scale live-fire drills around Taiwan in response to the visit of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosis visit to Taipei. Pelosi is the highest-ranking US official to visit Taiwan in the last 25 years. She assured Taipei of the USs commitment to supporting the democracy of the self-governed island claimed by Beijing. Taiwan has condemned the Chinese drills.



    UNTOLD Cluj-Napoca, in north-western Romania, is hosting until August 7 the UNTOLD electronica festival, currently at its 7th edition. For the opening night on Thursday, the organisers have brought to Romania, for the first time ever, a unique show by the German DJ and producer duo Claptone and 100 dancers and animators. The crowd will be welcomed by fantastic characters, international acrobats, animators, cheerleaders, dancers from Romania, France, the Netherlands, the UK, Germany and Ukraine, with parades, fireworks and laser shows. UNTOLD takes place in several locations, with the main stage placed in the Cluj Arena. The line-up includes the worlds best DJs, and the organisers expect nearly 400,000 people to attend. UNTOLD is one of the largest music festivals in the world. (AMP)

  • The pandemic and its aftermath in Romania

    The pandemic and its aftermath in Romania

    2022 is, among
    other things, the year of the housing census of the population in Romania. Initially,
    the housing census was scheduled for 2021, but it was postponed because of the
    pandemic. We are still waiting for the final data, to be compared with the data
    collected in the previous housing census carried in 2011. Meanwhile, we have
    had a look at the current statistics which sadly point to a worrying condition
    of the country’s birth and mortality rates.


    According to statistics, the number
    of the newly-born has stayed relatively constant during the pandemic. It was
    small, anyway. However, the mortality rate has soared. In 2021, irrespective of
    the death cause, the total number of the deceased Romanians went over 334
    thousand, that is 27% more than for the timeframe previous to the pandemic. All
    told, the mortality rate’s exceeding figure during the two years of the
    pandemic went over 100 thousand people. Concurrently, in Romania, in 2020, the reported
    number of the newborn accounted for 40 thousand less infants than in 2019.


    Dr Vasile
    Ghetau is a sociologist and demography expert. He told us that in that period
    of time the fewest children in the last hundred years were born. Which means
    that the natural growth rate, made of the difference between the number of the
    newborn and the number of the deceased, is still negative and only speeds up
    the natural decline.

    Dr Vasile Ghetau: The
    natural decline of the population before the pandemic, in 2019, accounted for
    71 thousand inhabitants. In 2020, the natural decline went up to 120,000, while
    the data for the first 11 months of 2021 point to a significant increase in the
    number of deaths, with the natural decline reaching almost 150,000 inhabitants.
    If we also take the month of December into account, last year we’re highly likely
    to have witnessed an appalling natural decline, of 160-170 thousand people in
    one year alone. It is an appalling figure as compared to the country’s
    population, accounting for 19 million people.


    Here
    is Dr Vasile Ghetau once again, this time speaking about the causes of the high
    mortality rate across the country.


    Dr Vasile Ghetau: The increase in the number of deaths in 2020
    and mostly in 2021 has the COVID-19 infection as its cause only in a moderate
    proportion. The deaths have been on the rise, specifically, because of the circulatory
    system conditions and of the respiratory system conditions other than COVID. This
    increase did have something to do with the pandemic, nonetheless. However,
    research studies on that are still in progress. For instance, it has been
    unanimously acknowledged that in the case of the circulatory system diseases, social
    isolation under quarantine circumstances led up to a reported growing number of
    deaths among the elderly, against the backdrop of the pandemic. As for the
    respiratory system conditions other than COVID, if we examine some of the data,
    we can see the mortality rate has grown because of pneumonia. Perhaps the general
    context of the pandemic has something to do with the characteristics of that
    virus, yet the final data, when they are provided, will offer a very accurate
    image of the mortality as a whole, in keeping with the specific causes of deaths.
    Then we can accurately measure where the COVID-generated mortality stands,
    against the backdrop of mortality as a whole.


    Until
    then,
    we can measure the immediate aftermath of mortality in recent years.

    Dr Vasile
    Ghetau
    : Mortality
    rate in October and November was on the rise, and its outcome was a decline in the
    level of life expectancy at birth, which was something predictable. So, for a
    whole year, life expectancy at birth for the entire population, male and
    female, in Romania, stands at almost 76 years. Data for the first 11 months of
    the last year point to a life expectancy rate which is three years shorter, therefore
    standing at 73 years. And, if to all that we add the month of December, life expectancy
    is highly likely to stand at 72 years. A four-year decline in life expectancy,
    that is whopping. Of course, other countries are also very likely to experience
    a rather high rate of pandemic-generated mortality that may lead to a setback
    in life expectancy. Yet we’re speaking about much smaller values than those
    reported for Romania in 2020 and those that have been quite clearly outlined
    for 2021.




    Here
    is sociologist Dr Vasile Ghetau once again, this time proving that these
    figures only make an even clearer representation of a phenomenon that has
    been ongoing for quite some time now: the new generations that have been born
    in Romania no longer provide the replacement level for the population as a
    whole.


    Dr Vasile Ghetau: In order for the population to grow or at least stay the same, for a simple
    replacement, one single woman will have to give birth to two children, in her
    life. It only takes two children for a primary population replacement process to occur.
    If, on average, more than two children are born, the population is likely to
    grow, so we’re going to have more than the numerical replacement level. However,
    in Romania, the last generation to have provided for itself the genetic
    replacement is the one born in 1961. All the subsequent generations had a final
    descendance rate lower than two children for one single woman. The more such
    generations are reported to occur, the more obvious is the fact that, in time, the
    population will be on the wane because it is unable to provide its own
    replacement.


    Further data and, implicitly, a more detailed picture of the demographic
    evolution and involution, we are going to have all that as soon as the housing census
    is completed. The online self-census of individuals begins on March 14, 2022.
    The field housing census carried through a face-to-face interview kicks off on May 16,
    2022.

    (EN)