Category: The Future Starts Today

An unprecedented event in Romanian politics took place this month: a year and a half before the parliamentary elections, Liberal Prime Minister Nicolae Ciucă resigned his position, according to the agreement, and his coalition colleague, PSD leader Marcel Ciolacu, took over the position of head of the executive in Bucharest. The political foundation of this change is the agreement signed in November 2021, with the establishment of the National Coalition for Romania. The 12-point document contained some precise moves between ministers, but these were amended following discussions. The negotiations ultimately resulted in tangible consequences in two directions: on the one hand, a more flexible government resulted, and, on the other hand, the UDMR exited the government. The new prime minister states that his priorities are aimed at reducing inflation, increasing purchasing power, but also at a higher percentage for investments being provided for in the budget for next year. The mandate of this government is about reforms and the economy, more concretely, about how we make the economy produce more value and jobs, and the results can be seen concretely in people’s pockets, says Marcel Ciolacu. According to him, the first and most concrete result of of good governance is for inflation to decrease, for people to feel it in the prices of basic products. Along with this approach, the prime minister says, we have other targeted measures to support agriculture, construction and energy, from my point of view, these are the areas that make a difference for people. Speaking on Radio Romania, university professor Andrei Țăranu made an x-ray of the political situation in Bucharest.

Romania had, let’s say, ascendancy over the countries of Central and Eastern Europe in terms of this somewhat unusual construction. It was, and still is, a model of success, because it brought what Romania has not had for a long time, namely political stability, or at least the appearance of political stability. North Macedonia too looks with great interest at the Romanian model. After the June 26 elections in Greece, if a clear majority is not obtained by Mitsotakis, he will probably think of a formula like that. In a coalition system, the Romanian model could be a successful model, at least for the surrounding countries.

For Romania, 2024 will be an electoral year par excellence, with parliamentary, local, presidential, and the European Parliament. Already, everyone is watching the Romanian political scene, I mean the citizens of Romania, because things are in constant change, says Andrei Țăranu:

Of course we have parties that are growing, especially the extremist ones, others that are stagnating, and others that are falling. Those who are diminishing try to find new pillars, so that one can stop this fall and then try to climb back up. It will be a hot summer, not only from a thermal point of view, but also from a political point of view, because it is the summer before the elections, and on June 6 next year, so in less than a year, the great electoral battle in Romania will begin, June 6 being the day of the European Parliament elections. But these are litmus elections, they are elections in which each party sees very clearly what its position is on the political stage. However, some parties have polls that do not show them doing very well.

The parties, at least the governing ones, PSD and PNL, will certainly not have a quiet summer, because a lot of things have to happen in Romania, says Andrei Ţăranu:

Unfortunately, our political model, the pandemic, many things have overlapped, and they are occurring on top of a crisis that we see spreading throughout the European Union. A Germany that has an inflation of over 9%, something unheard of in Germany after the Second World War, I mean the Federal Republic of German,y and then Germany today, means that many markets that Germany is dependent on, including Romania, to be very volatile. However, when this happens, especially during the summer, politicians must react quickly, find public policies that prevent very big crises. Let’s remember, in the case of Romania, the year 2010, which started as it did, but in the summer it led to large-scale and far-reaching protests and social tensions. However, the Ciolacu Government will not have a very simple year from many points of view, economic, electoral, political, etc.

President Klaus Iohannis also told the members of the government that a difficult period awaits them, with many problems to solve. The head of state is, however, confident that Marcel Ciolacu’s term will be characterized by stability, efficiency and seriousness, just like his predecessor’s term. We still have half a year in which we can solve a lot of things, after which we will enter a super-election year, which in itself is already a challenge for a society, we will have four rounds of elections, and, at the same time, the country must be governed responsibly and with good results, the head of state pointed out. At the same time, he pointed out that the governmental swap – a first-of-its-kind procedure for Romania – was carried out quickly and without a hitch.

President Vladimir Putin made a mistake by underestimating Ukraine and NATO, and the Alliance remains committed to supporting Kiev ‘for as long as it takes’, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg reiterated. According to the military leader, it will be a great tragedy for Ukrainians if President Putin wins, but, he added, it will also be dangerous for us because the message for him and all alternative leaders, including Beijing, would be that when they use force, they get what they want and that would also make us, the NATO allies, the United States, and Europe, more vulnerable. We don’t know how this war will end, but what we do know is that when it does, it is extremely important to be able to prevent history from repeating itself, Jens Stoltenberg said. In parallel with the support given to Ukraine, NATO is preparing for fundamental changes. The alliance has not needed to develop large-scale defense plans for decades, because post-Soviet Russia was no longer perceived as an existential threat, but now NATO is preparing to take a big step into the future at its next summit. A Reuters analysis claims that, in Vilnius, NATO leaders will approve secret military plans, which will detail, for the first time since the Cold War, how the Alliance would respond to a Russian attack. The analysis starts from the statement of a senior NATO military official, Rob Bauer, who says that the fundamental difference between crisis management and collective defense is the following: it is not us, but the adversary who sets the calendar of events. We must prepare for the fact that a conflict can break out at any moment. George Scutaru, general director of the New Strategy Center, explains:

There are various hypotheses for the evolution of this conflict in Ukraine. And one of the hypotheses that must be taken into account, and cannot be ignored, is that of an escalation that would ultimately lead to a direct confrontation between NATO and the Russian Federation, determined by the aggressive behavior of the Russians. The military must take into account such a possibility, just as the politicians must listen and validate, let’s say, such a working hypothesis, put on the table by the military. So, after all, it is natural for this to happen in the current context, because, as we see, the war will continue, Russia’s aggression is not decreasing, on the contrary, it is increasing. Putin and the political-military leadership of the Russian state show no signs of wanting to reach a peace solution. And things are heading towards a war of attrition that will last, and that can also determine an undesirable course, a sudden escalation of the situation. This is determined by how Russia will act in the future, that’s why we have to be ready.

The Black Sea proved to be a very vulnerable space, I could even say the most vulnerable, adds George Scutaru, because in this region we find the frozen conflicts of Europe, we find military action, starting with Georgia, then with the annexation of Crimea, and now with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. We must be prepared to consider all options. The world must understand that NATO has the ability to face any challenge, and NATO is us, NATO’s strength means an accumulation of capabilities made available by all NATO members, says the director general of the New Strategy Center. Political and military analyst Claudiu Degeratu also referred to the decisions that would be taken into account in Vilnius. We asked what has changed in the way we manage crises?

The perspective has really changed fundamentally, because a defense plan as it was done before 1989 by NATO, and as it will be done now, takes into account the threat profile of an adversary. For the last 30 years, we have discussed NATO plans for crisis situations, for remote combat, for interventions outside our Article 5 area. We plan our operations according to the situation, not an adversary. At this moment, the main opponent is the Russian Federation, and NATO has developed, based on last year’s decisions in Madrid, a concept of defense and deterrence for the entire Euro-Atlantic area. So, we are discussing a defense plan like we didn’t have after 1989, and it doesn’t resemble what it was before 1989, for the entire European strategic theater. To be clear, we are actually discussing the Atlantic area up to the eastern front, Poland, Romania, and to the north, from Norway to the southern flank, in the Mediterranean area. For the first time, we will also have national defense plans, which must be drawn in accordance with this great concept of deterrence and defense of the European strategic theater. They are integrated at the NATO level and, more than that, they must integrate with the new NATO force model, which is made up of three categories of forces, three contingents, and which should reach somewhere around 800,000 NATO soldiers, with different degrees and capacities of reaction. NATO must have the ability, based on this concept, to intervene in parallel under several conditions, in several situations, and for several possible developments in the entire European strategic area.

We are not just discussing a contingency plan for Poland, as we were discussing until now, or a contingency plan for Turkey or Romania, says Claudiu Degeratu. Now, the Russian Federation will have to know that NATO will be able to intervene in different areas with the same force and with the same impact capacity, and ability to take the fight immediately to the area where it is needed.

The pandemic has been one of the triggering events of global economic uncertainty and vulnerability in recent years, putting pressure on public finances and prompting a redefinition of policy priorities. The situation was further aggravated by the war started by the Russian Federation in Ukraine, which, in addition to the tragedy for the Ukrainians, generated new economic problems. Inflation has soared, hitting economies that were showing signs of recovering from the pandemic. Purchasing power has decreased, employees are trying to get politicians to increase their incomes through strikes, and politicians in turn are looking for solutions to bring more money to the budget. Invited to Radio Romania, journalist Lidia Moise, specialized in economic issues, made an analysis of the current situation, marked by overlapping crises.

First of all, we still have the effects of the pandemic. Duringthe pandemic, all the states of the world borrowed money in order to resist to resist, to help their businesses, to help people, who were forced to stay at home. This was money that all states borrowed, and which increased their budget deficits. It was apparently good for Romania, in a certain sense, because it got over the situation it already had with an excessive deficit more easily. The effect of the pandemic was also the maintenance of interest rates at a very low level by central banks. After that, we have inflation, obviously, we have very high prices. Maybe I should have put the war in Ukraine in second place, that’s where we get a lot of problems in the economy. Russia used economic blackmail with its gas, closed the tap, gave out less, made it more expensive, and in the end gave this gas to whom it wanted and at what price it wanted. In the end, this game did not entirely work out for them, because the Americans rushed to supplement the amount of liquefied gas they send to the Europeans, as well as to Maghreb countries, which normally delivered fuel to Italy and France, but it created a very high pressure and huge inflation, which we are also feeling now, and which we will have a hard time getting out of.

Another crisis is that of supply chain disruptions for goods and raw materials and components, analyst says, but also the climate crisis – a crisis that forces states and companies to review their attitude in terms of financing, in polluting investments or non-polluting. And now there is some hesitation, Lidia Moise remarks:

Hesitation that we see even given this energy crisis. For example, there is the question of whether Americans, American companies, should start reinvesting in shale gas, because it is not known for how long they can do this work, and the investments are not very small, they are significant investments that must be recovered in the end . Then we have a crisis that we saw in the US, the banking crisis, which we also saw early on in Europe, in Switzerland, the problems that Deutsche Bank had. The last crisis showed us that despite the feeling that the politicians, Europeans mainly, not the economists, but the politicians, that what happens in America stays in America, it’s their problem, I mean the year 2008, with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, it showed that, in the end, it was an extremely rapid contamination. So, we are in overlapping crises, polycrises, which are pressing on all economies.

As far as Romania is concerned, despite the difficult context, it still manages to be stable, also benefiting from considerable funds coming through the NPRR, says Lidia Moise:

Romania has stabilized, Romania is not in crisis at the moment. And it would be great if they managed to maintain this balance. Think of the fact that there are crises all around us. I will give you the example of Poland, which went through a technical recession last year, and managed to show very small growth at the end of the year. I’ll give you the example of Hungary, which has a very high inflation, 20%, they didn’t manage to move their economy either. It is a very interesting moment, it is a moment when we have around us, in Europe and in the world, a series of polycrises. I counted seven crises. Germany also experienced an extremely tough situation after the First World War. In fact, there were also the effects of the Spanish flu pandemic, which certainly left some effects on the population’s health, its ability to resist, etc., and of the states that had to suffer some extra expenses. There was hyperinflation in Germany. Then we had the bank crash, the stock market crash in 1929-1930. Before the Second World War, we also had a number of crises that affected the European states and the USA, but especially European states, and which, in the end, unfortunately, resulted in a strengthening of dictatorships, of sovereign nationalism.

This ultimately led to what we all learned in history was a disaster and its subsequent negative effects, Lidia Moise recalls – the emergence of fascism, the Second World War, and then the forced installation of communism throughout Central and Eastern Europe.

The future of the Republic of Moldova does not sound good at all if the war in Ukraine does not finish as we all wish it would, even if Russian troops do not actually go into the Republic of Moldova. At that point, hope for Romanians on the left bank of the river Prut would be blown up, and the moment that there ceases to be hope for the European project in the Republic of Moldova, the consequences would be almost as bad as a Russian occupation. This is part of the statement made for Radio Romania by Dan Dungaciu, director of the Institute for Political Science and International Relations with the Romanian Academy, who made an analysis of the situation in the former Soviet republic. According to him, security is at stake, because the Republic of Moldova cannot integrate into the EU, if it does not control its territory, because a case similar to that of Cyprus would not be acceptable to Brussels:

“For the time being, Romania is still the shortest way for European integration for Moldova, which will always be what remains standing by it when everything is taken away. In a final, dramatic situation, Romania is still here, ready to take on an even tragic partnership with the Republic of Moldova. That country is in a state of uncertainty which is generated by the incertitude in the Ukraine. Let us hope that the war, however it may end, will still leave a gap sufficiently wide between Moldova and the area under full scale war. As Ms. Maia Sandu herself suggested, if Russian troops come even closer to Odessa and the Black Sea, then Moldova stands no real chance of being defended. And this would be in the end the big issue for the Republic of Moldova, the way in which it solves its security problems.”

As Dan Dungaciu points out, politically speaking, right now, unfortunately, in the Republic of Moldova the side that is pro-east, or is not pro-west, has wind in its sails, as a result of the ambiguous war situation in Ukraine. Russia wont give up the idea of taking over power in Moldova, and is acting in various ways to install in Chisinau an obedient ruling class. This was a statement made by the present leader in Chisinau, speaking for the Voice of Bessarabia. According to the pro-West Maia Sandu, it is only the heroism of the Ukrainian army that keeps the front line far from the border between Ukraine and Moldova, but her country is facing elements of a hybrid war. This opinion is shared by Anatol Selaru, political observer, and former member of the government in Chisinau:

“The Republic of Moldova is the target of a hybrid attack from Russia, it is the target of attempts to destabilize and overthrow the government. We can see weekly protests in Chisinau by the Shor Party and their supporters, but these are not economic or political protests. These are paid protests, no one comes to these protests without money, they are all paid starting from 20 Euro, up to thousands of Euro, depending on their particular task. Sadly, until a few months ago, the Republic of Moldovas governance did not want to admit the existence of this provocation, did not want to admit it is the target of a hybrid wary, and that we are, directly or indirectly, in the crosshairs in this war waged by Russia.”

External pressures can destabilize gravely the internal situation in Moldova, because state institutions are weak, and not up to the task of dealing with these challenges. As for the war in Ukraine, the analyst added, the pressure is great, and only Ukraines victory can guarantee Moldovas security, and guarantee bringing to a conclusion negotiations to join the EU, guaranteeing at the same time issues with separatism.

“Because, once Ukraines army prevails in this war, the Russian army, which is illegally stationed in Transdnestr, can simply go home in peace, because no one will allow this foothold in Transdnestr. The separatists, which are now encouraged by Moscow, pro-Russian parties and the fifth column, which get money and support from Moscow, will no longer get support. Transdnestr separatism, which is propped up by the Russian Army, free Russian gas, and economic aid from Moscow, will no longer get these things, because the gas pipeline that reaches Transdnestr crosses the territory of Ukraine. Gagauz separatism, which is also encouraged by Moscow, and partially by Hungary, will cease to exist, and then many of the problems we have today will vanish.”

Anatol Selaru added that the Republic of Moldova is going through a very hard time, and it should be mentioned that it could always rely on help from Romania, without whose help it could not have weathered all the crises it faced so far. As the political analyst concluded, Romania was Moldovas advocate in the West, in the EU. There has been not a single meeting in Brussels or in any other place in the world discussing this areas problems in which Romania failed to bring up the issues with the Republic of Moldova, bringing up the help that Europe has to grant this small country, which is the weak link in this geopolitical area. He said that, lacking support from Romania and the EU, Moldova would not have been able to cope on any level with the problems it has faced so far.

In the history of diplomatic relations that Bucharest has, the year 1838 is the one when connections were made with Belgium, the country that set up its first consulate in this country in the city of Galati, in the east. Four years later it ws moved to Bucharest, and in 1870 it was turned into a diplomatic agency. In 1880, after Romania’s independence was recognized, the first diplomatic representative, at the legation level, is set up in Brussels. In 1963, it was elevated to embassy level. Diplomatic relations had been suspended between 1941 and 1946. Much later, in 1994, a joint political declaration by Romania and the Kingdom of Belgium was signed, after that, a cooperation accord was signed between the government of Romania and Flanders, which was aimed mostly at renewable energy, farming, transportation and public works, social protection and assistance, innovation, labor force, and social integration. A similar accord was signed for cooperation between Romania and Wallonia, as well as the government of the French community in Belgium. Romanian – Belgian relations are very good at the political and diplomatic level, with a close economic and trade cooperation, as well as collaboration at the European and international level. Statistics show that, over the last decade, there was a constant increase in trade, as well as in the number of Belgian companies investing in Romania.

Some of these aspects were discussed in an interview given to RRI by Elio di Rupo, former Belgian PM, who is now president-minister in the Wallonian government, who visited in late February Romania, which is a member country in the World Organization of Francophony:

“I am in the capital of Romania for several reasons. First of all, the relations we have with Romanians in Belgium. According to the Embassy of Romania, almost 200,000 Romanians are in Belgium, of whom more than half are in Brussels. Another reason is Romania’s strategic position in terms of Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova, in this abominable war started by Russia. Economically, Romania has a growth of 5%, is almost energy independent, which attracts companies. We already have 330 Belgian companies that work in Romania, and 700 more companies in Wallonia are interested in what happens in Romania.

The approximately 200,000 Romanians in Belgium are the second most important minority in the country, and its economic impact is major. Generally, we are talking about workers in almost all sectors of the economy, such as construction, but also nurses and physicians. The Belgian official says that it is a very well integrated population, recalling the number of Belgian companies in Romania. However, Elio el Rupo believes that relations could be enhanced. As he put it, the two need to create economic value through trade, and an exchange of production. He also spoke about the fact that Romania became part of the EU in 2007, but it is not yet a part of the Schengen space:

“That is because we need to have unanimity. So far, The Netherlands has been reticent. I recall that, 10 years ago, when I was in the European Council, The Netherlands blamed Romania for being too permissive with foreigners. But the president of Romania explained that Rotterdam was an import hub for drugs going all over Europe. The Netherlands has to be convinced that we have to move forward. However, Austria is still not of the same opinion. It seems that the big problem that the EU has is that, when it opened up towards Eastern European countries, this unanimity mechanism stayed. The effects can still be seen now, in terms of Romania’s acceptance into the Schengen space. It is enough for one country to be opposed for the process to be blocked. But the truth is that we have to move forward.

And because Russia’s war in Ukraine affects all of Europe, Elio di Rupo also took up the topic, which, for more than a year, has been gripping headlines all over. He recalled that Belgium had a similar reaction as the other countries, hoping for a diplomatic solution to be found early in the conflict. Unfortunately, one year later, there is no other solution except defense against Russia, says the official:

“Because if Russia prevailed in Ukraine, democracies and freedom would be in grave danger, because we don’t know where Putin would stop. Therefore, the evolution of the situation in Ukraine will be long and difficult. We won’t be finding a solution too soon. China intervened, but, as it stands today, the advance of Russian troops in Ukraine cannot give us hope for an immediate cease fire and negotiations. So we have no other solution than the present one: we must arm Ukraine. This is what NATO members and European countries are doing, without them Ukraine could not hold on. What will be the conclusion of this conflict? No one knows.

Elio di Rupo added that Ukraine must be helped with everything we have, because the battle is not only on Ukrainian soil, which is where the physical battle is, it is all over Western Europe in terms of human, political, social, and economic difficulties.

Gender equality refers to the equality between women and men in terms of rights, treatment, responsibilities, and their economic and social opportunities and outcomes. Equality exists when men and women have the same rights, responsibilities, and opportunities in all societal sectors, and when the various interests, needs, and priorities of men and women are evaluated equally. Brussels defines gender equality as one of its core values, a fundamental right, an essential component of economic growth, and a fundamental principle of the European pillar of equal rights. However, in spite of progress that has been made, inequalities between men and women in the workplace, in work placement, in terms of quality of life, still persists over 20 years since the turn of the century. According to a common declaration of over 20 embassies in Bucharest and the EC representative office in Romania, what is essential in achieving gender equality is assuring women’s full, equal, effective, and significant participation in private and public life, including political representation and the management level of decision making. Also, the signatories emphasize that women and girls have a right to a violence and discrimination free life.

The European Commissioner for Equality, Helena Dalli of Malta, speaking in Bucharest, said that the progress made in terms of gender equality in the EU are still at a low level and uneven, in spite of visible signs of change. She added that the EC is working to build a Europe in which women and girls can prosper and can lead on an equal footing with men, without hindrance. She spoke about women’s economic and financial independence, and about the tools for balancing personal and work life. In Romania, 46% of women, as opposed to 25% of men, are caretakers for children, aging persons, or people with disabilities within the family. The situation is far from balanced in terms of gender representation in politics. Women are not represented properly in national parliaments and governments, including in Romania, and this is not beneficial for democracy, as the commissioner stated. Another discrimination issue is the pay gap, as women are generally paid less than men. Gender equality was an issue tackled for Radio Romania by Professor Andreea Paul. The professor said that women want equal rights, women want to be competitive as individuals in the political, social, administrative, educational, and economic system, and that she believes that Romania can be a much stronger nation if it granted these equal rights to men and women alike in decision making roles. She spoke about equal treatment, responsibilities, equal pay, and equal opportunities:

“In terms of the pay gap, Romania leads in the EU, with the smallest of pay gaps, and I think this is good news. In the rest of the union, things are more complicated. That is because, out of inertia, we had an education system that facilitated high education and gaining high end skills among women and girls. So that would be the good news. But what we are not managing to yet capitalize on are these competencies gained in higher education in public decision making. In terms of private decision making, again, things are much better, but not regarding the boards of big scale companies. There is a recent government decision to propose a minimum quota of 30% for the boards of companies listed on the stock exchange. In other words, to have no less than 30% of these boards be either men or women. However, at the grassroots, in the real economy, things stand as you know. We are far from this percentage of representation.

We are also two decades behind other European countries in terms of quality of life, and one of the channels by which this was achieved was gender equality, according to Andreea Paul. She said that we are just starting to talk about a 30% quota, but this decision was made in developed countries around the world 20 or 30 years ago.

“This is the kind of gap in mentalities that we have to overcome. Of course, we have the exponential changes of our times, in terms of digital advances. Women’s voices are much more clearly heard, which leads to a compression of history, so we don’t have to wait for another 30 years to balance things out. But we have more reading to do, and to better understand perspectives, and talk with more confidence about gender equality. We should respect feminists, because I think the term has gained a negative connotation. In reality, we should thank all the feminists who have allowed our access to the vote for today’s women. This happened in less than a century, we have access to any job we want, to any university and doctoral program. We also have access to public office, we have the right to equal pay, and many others, and that is, in fact, thanks to the activism of the much maligned feminists over the last few decades.

In spite of this, Andreea Paul said, the result of their labors makes life today more just and dignified.

After a year of war, Russia has reached none of the objectives that Vladimir Putin set in his 24 February speech. However, up to this point, none of the sides managed to categorically get the upper hand over the other, and the conclusion of this war depends more and more on the military situation. This was the statement made for Agerpres by political scientist Cristian Parvulescu, one year after the beginning of Russias invasion of neighboring Ukraine. As Parvulescu remarked, There will be room for negotiations only after military operations conclude, and it depends from what positions these negotiations occur. As he explained, there are three possible outcomes: 1 — Russia wins; 2 — Ukraine prevails; 3 — None of the sides manages to get the upper hand. This third situation may lead either to a cease fire in the positions that each side holds at the moment of the decision, or a peace that confirms the existing situation on the front lines. The third solution is, as of now, unacceptable for either side. The number of people who were killed or injured on both sides in the past year runs in the hundreds of thousands, millions of Ukrainians have been forced to flee from the war, and entire cities have been leveled.

In an interview with Radio Romania, George Scutaru, general director of the New Strategy Center, ran an analysis of what he defines as the greatest threat to European security since WWII, and the greatest challenge for NATO:

“What happened over the last year, unfortunately, proves right Romania and other eastern flank states, such as Poland or the Baltic states, which tried to warn their Western allies that Russia is a danger, and that Russia must be stopped from undertakings such as the one in Georgia, in 2008, and the one in which it annexed Crimea in 2014. Unfortunately, most believed that dialog and diplomacy would prevail over the use of force. This was the wrong assessment. And today we are in the situation in which we have large scale war. The good thing is that Ukraine is holding on. On the one side, it relied on the heroism of the entire Ukrainian nation, but there was another side: an ample process of training which was started in 2015 by the US, the UK, and other NATO members for Ukrainian troops. We are talking about a different Ukrainian army than in 2014, and this was seen in the field. At the same time, everyone saw what it means to have an army rotten inside from corruption, badly led, with a badly conceived plan, and badly applied. This resulted in Russian failure, fortunately for us. At the same time, we should not celebrate victory too quickly. We have to be rational, to think that we are talking about a country with major energy resources, a country with a population of 140 million, and, more importantly, with a political leadership willing to fight and see this war through. Putin is not about to give up soon. Russia is prepared economically to continue this conflict for a long time. Basically, we are facing two scenarios: we either have a Ukrainian victory in the second half of the year, when Ukrainians will be able to make good use of all the Western provided armaments, mainly armor, in order to have impact and manage to push through the front line, isolating the land corridor between Donbass and Crimea. The other possibility is a war of attrition, which could carry on for 2 or 3 years, depleting the forces of both countries.”

In February last year, the Kremlin was relying on a quick victory, but the Ukrainian resistance overturned his plans from the very first days of the war. Kiev got help from western states, which, going against the expectations of the Kremlin, acted promptly, delivering weapons and munitions to Ukraine, slapping further sanctions against Russia. In this conflict, more or less openly, nuclear threats were made, with statements from the leader in the Kremlin causing worries among decision makers and the population. This was the topic talked about with Radio Romania by NATO deputy secretary, Mircea Geoana:

“Based on what we can see, the Russian Federation has neither the capacity, nor the intent to escalate the war in Ukraine to a war with NATO. It would be somewhat illogical, because given the asymmetry between the Russian Federation, weakened by the conflict, with military capacity way below what it believed, in comparison with NATO, which is much stronger, more modern, and more potent, it makes no sense. What the Russian Federation is doing is it is trying to use its hybrid war arsenal against the West as well. One central weapon in this disinformation war is intimidation, making noises of nuclear rhetoric aimed at public opinion. The Kremlin is basically trying to intimidate Western public opinion. When you hear such rhetoric from the top tier in the Kremlin, a feeling of worry is natural, and absolutely legitimate. What I want to say in order to alleviate these worries is that, militarily, we dont see signs or clues on that, because this would be an unprecedented escalation by the Russians, and, as a nuclear power, they know exactly what that means.”

At the same time, Mircea Geoana added, what we can expect is for nuclear rhetoric from Russia to continue, in order to intimidate and sap our unity and willingness to support Ukraine.

Turkey is facing a disaster with the major 7.8 Richter scale earthquake of February 6, followed by hundreds of aftershocks, some of great intensity, which left dozens of thousands dead. The Turkish authorities appealed to international aid, and the EU responded by activating its civilian protection mechanism. Many countries, Romania among them. have sent in rescue teams. The quakes in Turkey were felt in Israel, Lebanon, Cyprus, and northern Syria, and they had dramatic consequences — countless dead and major material damage. Seismologist Mihail Diaconescu, with the Institute for Research and Development in Earth Sciences, speaking for Radio Romania, explained what can cause such a chain of powerful earthquakes:

“The first earthquake, the initial one, 7.8, occurred close to the conjunction of three tectonic plates, the Arab, the African, and the Anatolian. It probably was an impulse from the Mediterranean submersion area in the Mediterranean, in the Cypriot arc, which upset the balance in the area, and generated this 7.8 earthquake. The later earthquake, 7.5, is not part of the seism sequence of 7.8, since it had a rupture direction of east to west, while the 7.8 had a north-east-south-west rupture. In Turkey we have superficial quakes, caused by the East Anatolia fault, the North Anatolia fault, where we were used to have quakes above 7 on the Richter scale. This faultline is in the north of Turkey, and is parallel with the Turkish coast of the Black Sea. In Romania, according to official records, we had a 7.9 scale earthquake in the 19th century, representing the peak of magnitude that the fault line in Vrancea may produce. But, this being a historically described quake, it may have been slightly overestimated.”

These comments are related to a parallel between what happened in Turkey and the most seismic area in Romania, the Vrancea area. The strongest Vrancea quake, 7.9, allegedly came in 1802, and was felt from Moscow to Istanbul, and chronicles write that the steeples of all the churches in Bucharest collapsed. 138 years later, in 1940, a 7.4 quake occurred 133 km down the crust, and lasted for 3 minutes. The effects were devastating, with 1,000 estimated deaths, and 4,000 estimated injured. It struck Bucharest, where it left about 3000 dead, with most of them in the rubble of a very modern high rise at the time, 12 stories of reinforced building. After the 1940 earthquake, the General Association of Engineers in Romania put together a study of the effect of quakes on reinforced concrete buildings, and as a result new norms were applied to all post-war buildings. In March 1977, a new earthquake, 7.2 on the scale, left about 1,570 people dead, most of them in Bucharest, where 33 or more high rise buildings collapsed. The epicenter was estimated at 100 km, and the shock wave traveled the entire Balkan Peninsula. Nine years later, 150 people died in another earthquake, 7.1 on the Richter scale, and in 1990 Romania had three more quakes, 6.9, 6.4, and 6.1, which killed 13 people. Speaking to Radio Romania, engineer Matei Sumasacu, expert in construction and earthquake risk assessment, talked about the possible causes of the size of the disaster in Turkey, and Romanias vulnerabilities at the same time:

“We are obviously talking about a tragedy, and, as the saying goes, earthquakes dont kill people, buildings kill people in earthquakes. The Turkey earthquake met a seismic vulnerability of the buildings there, which is for several reasons. First of all, the inadequate building codes before 2000 started being revised with a more adequate system, but really, it was only after 2018 that they improved. However, they were left with a wide swath of buildings erected before 2000, considered very unsafe, buildings with a flexible ground floor, which are very fragile in an earthquake, and we have seen how the ground floors of many buildings caused a serial collapse, a so-called sandwiching of the whole building. We thought of our buildings here, in Bucharest, Romania, because we have a whole host of aging buildings, designed without quakes in mind, before 1940, or before 1977, when the seismic design was not exactly applied correctly.”

However, among the collapsed buildings in Turkey there were newly built structures. Matei Sumpasacu told us that this is another layer of vulnerability, the area of quality assurance in buildings, which makes the difference between reality and how a project lays on paper. This is the area, he says, that entails corruption, and apparently the most corrupt domain in the world is construction, by making shortcuts through the system.

The fact that was obvious to everyone was confirmed officially by the results of the most recent census: Romania is in demographic decline. The difference with the census before this one is 1.1 million people less, while the difference with the 1990 census is 4 million inhabitants less. The main causes are migration to western countries, in addition to a drop in birth rates. Raw numbers show that the Romanian population fell by over 5% compared to 2011. Compared to 2002, it fell by 12%, and in 2021 it reached the level of the year 1966. The phenomenon is not unique to Romania, it is present all over Eastern Europe, but it is equally worrying everywhere. Tudorel Andrei, president of the National Institute of Statistics, spoke to Radio Romania about the results of the census, saying that they show a speeding up in the drop of population numbers, also indicating an aging of the population at the same time:

“The reduction of the resident population is not a phenomenon that we encounter in Romania alone, it is a phenomenon encountered in most Eastern European countries, and even in developed western countries. Unfortunately, in Romania, Bulgaria, and Croatia the drop in population numbers is much greater than in the rest of the countries in the east of the continent. The causes are multiple, and we should look for them in the various stages of the transition. The first was that in the first period of the transition we had high levels of migration. These levels went down in the second stage, beginning in 2012-2013, but we also have the issue of births and deaths. Let us not forget that birth and death rates are very complex phenomena, which have some rigidity, they are slow to change, and usually there is a leap in time. What happened in the first period of transition resonates nowadays. So these are, in broad strokes, the two very important factors: migration and natural factors. 30 years of transition meant equally a change in the behavior of the population regarding a first birth within the family related to the number of children being born into a family.

For many women, career comes first now more than two or three decades ago. Professional and educational opportunities have been on the rise, time spent in school is longer, so women decide to have children later in life. At a family level, high incomes count more in the decision to have a child, and high paid professional positions come at a high cost in terms of time and energy. Therefore, more than half of couples in Romania decide to have only one child. Tudorel Andrei said that he was struck by the drop in the population between 15 and 64 years of age. With a drop of 1.4 million, this age group went down in number from 68% in 2011 to 64%. He said that this was the most important takeaway from the census. We asked him what can be done to halt, or even reverse, this phenomenon:

“If we only look at international migration, it indeed went down very much in the last five or six years. In the first years after joining the EU, 2007 and 2008, migration was very high, as high as half a million per year. Today, international migration is not as high. Unfortunately, the natural factor, at least in 2021, was the major factor in the drop in resident population. Let us not forget that the phenomenon of birth, as well as that of death, are very complex, and we cannot change them overnight. We have to have patience. If we want to have a change in the behavior of the population in the near future, we have to wait for results in 10, maybe 20 years, we cannot expect results overnight. This happened once more in the history of Romania, in 1967. That was possible because we were a totalitarian society. We saw the results around 2006-2007, when the population born between 1967 and 1969 migrated to a high degree to the west of the continent.

The loss of 4 million citizens in three decades is already being felt negatively in the job market, especially in the hospitality industry and construction, where there is a sore need of employees. Also affected is the pension system, considering that Romania is far from the ideal and sustainable ratio of four workers to one pensioner. In Romania, 10 salaried workers support 9 pensioners. We asked ourselves what happens if things stay on this throughline. In terms of pensions, in 2030 the budget will become unable to support seniors, according to finance analysts. On the other hand, the health crisis will alleviate, savings will recover, and developed western countries will once again need workhands, mostly obtained from Eastern Europe. Also in 2030, Romania’s resident population could be around 18 million, according to the National Institute of Statistics. Thus, Romania stands to go down the European list in terms of population, going to seventh place instead of sixth, overtaken by The Netherlands.

Last year was the warmest in the history of weather measurements in Romania, according to an analysis of the National Meteorology Administration. They said that the highest average temperatures since 1990 were recorded in 2007, 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2022. At the same time, the interval between 2012 and 2022 was the warmest period over 11 years in a row, which confirms the trend of rising temperatures in Romania. At the same time, average temperatures way over the normal levels occur all over the Earth. Climate change threatens the entire planet, and is no longer a local or national problem, according to experts, who raise an alarm on the general degradation of the weather, as well as of biodiversity. Scientists insist that time is of the essence, since 75% of world ecosystems are affected by human activity, with over a million species being threatened by extinction, with world prosperity under threat too, considering that over half of the worlds GDP is dependent on nature. Measures to help the planet have been announced, but it is in doubt as to whether they will be applied. Stating that humanity has become a weapon of mass extinction, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres called for a peace agreement with nature. In December, at the environmental protection conference in Montreal, a historic pact was adopted, one that vital for humanity. It is called the Kumming-Montreal agreement, and it is a roadmap to protect land, oceans, and entire species in the face of pollution, degradation, and the climate crisis, being the result of over 4 years of difficult negotiations.

The best known of the objectives was the creation of protected areas covering 30 percent of the planet, and was presented as the equivalent of the Paris Accords that were set to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. It is notable that this agreement comes at a time when only 17% of land surfaces and 8% of water surfaces on the planet are protected. The text also offers guarantees to indigenous populations in areas where over 80% of biodiversity left on the Earth lies, proposing to restore 30% of degraded land, and reducing by half the risk of pesticides.

This agreement is historic not only for the fact that it provides for the first time a framework, but also because it is ambitious. It refers to pesticides, and it provides for eliminating subsidies that undermine biodiversity. Commitments were made up to the year 2050, as well as financing that doubles what came before, and triples monetary contributions up until 2030. Speaking for Radio Romania is professor Mircea Dutu, chairman of the Ecological University of Bucharest:

“This is just the first victory, but we have to wait for the process to continue, because this Kumming-Montreal agreement has simply been approved by consensus. It is supposed to first be signed on by states, then ratified, then applied. This is meant to create a new global framework for action in terms of biodiversity, considering that, of the 21 objectives set in Japan in 2010 for 2020, none have been reached. As such, it would be desirable for most of the 23 objectives that have been set now to be reached. On medium term, by 2030, the process of eroding biodiversity should be stopped, and protection of land and sea surfaces should be enhanced. On long term, aiming at 2050 and 2100, the aim is to have humanity living in harmony with nature. We can see that all these objectives are in view of the pace and stages of applying the Paris Accords on climate, since there is an interdependence between conserving biodiversity and climate change.”

The debates hit a snag when it came to the financial issue, which were at the center of debates until the end, even in the final voting session. The coalition of countries of the south called on rich nations to provide 100 billion dollars per year, and the progressive increase of this amount towards 700 billion dollars until 2030. In the end, the agreement was signed, with 30 billion dollars in annual financing for conservation in developing countries. In addition to subsidies, a lot of pressure was applied in order to set up a world biodiversity fund, similar to the one agreed on in November in Egypt. The fund is meant to help underdeveloped countries to cope with climate change. China, the country that chaired the COP-15 meeting, proposed to create in 2023 a special biodiversity branch of the Global Environment Facility.

2023 began with a series of warnings from international financial institutions that many

economies in recession are at risk of sliding. Even without another crisis, the growth of

the world economy this year “is slowing sharply in the face of elevated inflation, higher

interest rates, reduced investment, and disruptions caused by Russias invasion of

Ukraine, according to the World Banks latest Global Economic Prospects report. The

World Bank warns that global and national efforts are needed urgently to alleviate the

risks caused by a reduction of economic activity and the burden of debts faced by

emerging and developing economies, where the increase in investments is expected to

be below the average of the last two decades.

Speaking about the global economy in an interview for the American TV station CBS, the director of the International Monetary Fund Kristalina Georgieva said she was expecting a third of world economy to go into recession and pointed out that for the first time in the last 40 years, Chinas dynamic growth will probably be below global growth:

“For most of the world economy, this is going to be a tough year, tougher than the year we leave behind. Why? Because the three big economies – US, China and EU – are all slowing down simultaneously. The US is most resilient. The US may avoid recession. We see the labor market remaining quite strong. This is however a mixed blessing, because if the labor market is very strong, the Fed may have to keep interest rates tighter for longer to bring inflation down. The EU – very severely hit by the war in Ukraine. Half of the European Union will be in recession next year. China is going to slow down this year further. Next year will be a tough year for China. And that translated into negative trends globally. When we look at the emerging markets in developing economies, there, the picture is even direr. Why? Because on top of everything else, they get hit by high interest rates and by the appreciation of the dollar. For those economies that have high level of that, this is a devastation.

According to the head of the International Monetary Fund, the global economic growth

rate will slow down to 2.7% from 3.2% last year. As far as Romania is concerned, it will

see a 2.8% economic growth rate this year, compared with 5% last year. Economy

expert Mircea Coşea provided an overview of the Romanian economy for Radio

Romania:

“We live more by consumption, by services, and to a certain measure by agriculture. However, the latest studies made by Howard University indicate that we are top notch in the world, in 19th place, in terms of diversification and modernization of the economy. Things are debatable, because it is very hard to say to what extent Romania is a developed country, as long as the purchasing power has been constantly falling for the last few years. We have two major shortcomings that hinder our development, the current account deficit and the trade balance deficit. The truth is very clear, though: whatever they say, the Romanian economy needs reforming quickly, because it cannot cope with the major changes in the world.

In the last few year, such changes have started appearing, and 2023 will be a year of major changes from the point of view of the global model of development, according to Professor Mircea Cosea. New, important economic actors are emerging, such as India, for instance. Also, the war between China and the United States started going in the US’s favor, China missed the start. At the same time, the countries that take advantage of their domestic resources to a better measure, and reduce dependence on imports, have a lot to gain. Things are the other way around with us, says Mircea Cosea:

“Imports are very high. Domestic manufacture, especially for items that we may be successful in producing, such as foodstuffs, are not progressing. No major economic measures are taken for modernization and restructuring, in support of the real economy, the private sector. On the contrary, taxes and penalties are applied from all points of view, regarding the possibilities of feeding the budget. So, the Romanian economy, small as it is, will suffer two major shocks. On the one hand, the external shock, which is not favorable at all, the European economy is not growing, it has issues. These are not necessarily structural, we are also talking about dependence on energy and raw materials. From within, there are no major measures in the economy. We only have measures to mitigate the situation of the most disadvantaged categories, but this is not a road to development, but a means of some categories surviving to the detriment of others.

In the first 11 months of last year, Romania had a record trade balance deficit, over 31 billion Euro. Romania’s foreign trade continues to be dominated by trade with other EU member states, which account for 72% of total exports and 70% of imports.