Radio România Internațional

Tag: deficit

  • Romania’s trade deficit

    Romania’s trade deficit

     

    In the first 4 months of this year, Romania’s trade deficit (imports minus exports) was over EUR 9.3 bln, that is, EUR 440 mln deeper than in the corresponding period of last year, the National Statistics Institute announced on Monday.

     

    During this period, exports reached a rough EUR 31.3 bln, and imports exceeded EUR 40.6 bln. According to the National Statistics Institute, in the first 4 months of the year a big part of Romania’s imports and exports was accounted for by vehicles and transport equipment, as well as other manufactured products. Intra-EU trade accounted for approx. 73% of both imports, and exports.

     

    In this context, analysts believe the trade deficit is, alongside the budget deficit, one of the major weaknesses of the national economy. On the one hand, the government spends more than it makes, and on the other hand exports are lower than imports. Experts say that after a period in which the trade deficit showed signs of improvement, the trend now is for it to resume its negative trend, which also puts pressure on the national currency’s exchange rate.

     

    However, the same specialists argue, Romania’s foreign currency reserves should offset the trade deficit, which has stayed rather deep for several years, making the exports more competitive.

     

    Just days ago, the National Statistics Institute announced that the country’s forex reserves had exceeded EUR 65 bln, as against roughly 62.5 bln at the end of April, which is an all-time high for an indicator that impacts directly on the stability of the exchange rate and, consequently, on price stability. This has positive effects both in terms of strengthening the confidence of financial markets and of investors in Romania, and in terms of supporting the exchange rate stability.

     

    Analysts also point out that the rising trend in currency reserves has already been evident for a long time, and is a positive trend for Romania in the face of the highly volatile international situation and the uncertainty of the world’s financial markets as regards future developments. They also explain that a large chunk of the foreign currency reserves comes from European funds, which are exchanged into lei and used by the Finance Ministry to finance various investment projects.

     

    As financial experts argue, international reserves work as a safety net against prospective disruptions. But, they also warn, the rise in foreign currency reserves may also have less favourable effects. Romania’s currency exchange rate stability, all the more remarkable in the last few years given the various disruptions in the markets, has its downsides as well. Specifically, with a national inflation rising steeply to 16%, but a currency exchange rate staying roughly the same, Romania’s exports are affected, as they are less competitive in terms of prices. (AMP)

  • June 10, 2024

    June 10, 2024

    Local elections – The incumbent general mayor of Bucharest, the independent Nicuşor Dan, won a new mandate in Sunday’s local elections, obtaining almost 47% of the votes, according to the partial results. On second position, at a great distance, is the social-democratic candidate Gabriela Firea. In the General Council, the Social Democratic Party – PSD (in the governing coalition together with the National Liberal Party – PNL) and the United Right Alliance, which supported Nicusor Dan, are tied, with about 27% of the votes. PSD and PNL won, in this order, the most county councils. European Parliament elections were also held in Romania on Sunday, which were won by the joint list proposed by PSD and PNL. The Alliance for the Union of Romanians – AUR (sovereigntist, ultranationalist) is on 2nd position, at a big distance, followed by the United Right Alliance and the Democratic Union of Ethnic Hungarians in Romania – UDMR.  Romania will be represented by 33 MEPs.

     

    European elections – The partial results of the European elections held between June 6-9 show that the first position is held by the European People’s Party group, which obtained 191 mandates, 15 more than in the last elections. The Social Democrats are in second position, with 135 mandates, which means a decrease of four mandates compared to 2019. Renew loses almost 20 mandates but keeps the third position. The two far-right Eurosceptic parties, the Conservatives and Reformists group, as well as the Identity and Democracy group, climb to fourth and fifth place. The Greens lose fourth position and fall to sixth, with 53 mandates, compared to the 71 they held following the 2019 elections, and the extreme left remains in seventh position with 35 mandates. The independents got 50 mandates, and the unaffiliated parties 45 mandates. According to these partial data and according to last night’s declarations of the political leaders, Radio Romania’s correspondent in Brussels reports, the future majority will be formed through the negotiation between the first three groups, just as happened in the past. Together, they hold a comfortable majority of 409 parliamentary mandates out of a total of 720, so the vote for the future European Commission should not pose any problems. The European People’s Party wants Ursula von der Leyen to get a second term as head of the Commission, for which only 361 votes are needed. The president of the European Commission has said that her centre-right alliance will act as “a bastion against extremes” in the European Parliament, following a surge in people’s support for nationalist parties. Far right and radical rightist parties won the elections in France, Austria and Italy and came second in Germany and the Netherlands. Following the results in France, President Emmanuel Macron decided to hold early elections in three weeks’ time.

     

    Deficit – Romania’s trade balance deficit in the first four months of the year was just over 9.3 billion euros, 440 million Euros higher than the one recorded in the same period last year, the National Institute of Statistics (INS) announced on Monday. During the analyzed period, exports totaled almost 31.3 billion Euros, and imports over 40.6 billion Euros. According to INS, in the first four months of the year, important shares in the structure of exports and imports are held by machines and transport equipment, as well as by other manufactured products. The value of intra-EU27 exchanges of goods accounted for about 73% of both total exports and total imports.

     

    Tech Week – Bucharest hosts between June 10-16 the eighth edition of Bucharest Tech Week, an emblematic event that transforms the city into the epicenter of technological innovation and where more than 25,000 technology enthusiasts are expected. With a focus on redefining the human experience through technology, the event promises to inspire industry professionals and enthusiasts alike, giving them the opportunity to discover the latest trends and innovations. Bucharest Tech Week maintains the same successful structure, the organizers announced: 5 days of Business Summits, followed by Tech Expo, the largest tech exhibition in Romania, dedicated to the public at large, held throughout the weekend. This year, the five business summits bring together over 50 local and international speakers, and over 60 partner companies respectively, that will bring to the attention of those present over 450 technology solutions dedicated to the business environment. Among the participants in the opening ceremony is Mircea Geoană, NATO Deputy Secretary General.

     

    Summit – Romania’s President, Klaus Iohannis, will participate on Tuesday, in Riga, in the Bucharest Format Summit 9 (B9), which he will co-chair alongside the President of Latvia, Edgars Rinkevics, and the President of Poland, Andrzej Duda. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will also participate in the event. The meeting takes place one month before the NATO Anniversary Summit in Washington, D.C., which marks 75 years since the Alliance was founded. In Riga, the leaders will have the opportunity for an in-depth exchange of views on the major objectives and the main expected results for the Washington Summit, with focus on strengthening NATO’s deterrence and defense posture on the Eastern Flank, as well as on intensifying support for Ukraine, writes a press release from the Romanian presidency. (LS)

  • March 27, 2024

    March 27, 2024

    Visit – The National Bank supports and encourages initiatives aimed at the development of the capital market in the Republic of Moldova, and as an institution responsible for prudential supervision and the stability of the financial market, we want to facilitate the free movement of capital and financial services, the governor of the National Bank of Moldova, Anca Dragu, said on Wednesday in Bucharest. She emphasized that these are actually chapters of negotiation for Moldova’s accession to the European Union, “chapters in which the National Bank has a leading role, so that the Republic of Moldova should enjoy prosperity and economic stability”. Romania commits and continues to commit unconditionally to supporting the European path of the Republic of Moldova, said, in turn, the speaker of the Romanian Senate, Nicolae Ciucă. They participated, on Wednesday, together with the Moldovan Prime Minister, Dorin Recean, and the head of the Moldovan Parliament, Igor Grosu, in a forum organized by the Stock Exchange, an event that promotes solid economic cooperation and the interconnection of the capital markets between the Republic of Moldova and Romania.

     

    Bessarabia – Romania is among the staunch supporters of the European future of the Republic of Moldova, as its citizens wish, the Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu said in a message on the occasion of the Day of Bessarabia’s Union with Romania. The Romanian Cultural Institute – ICR and its representations abroad are organizing a series of cultural events to mark 106 years since this historic moment. Today, at the National Art Museum of Romania, a painting exhibition is opened that includes 100 works by artists from the Republic of Moldova, and the National Theater in Bucharest will host performances in which Romanian and Moldovan actors will participate. On March 27, 1918, the Chisinau State Council voted in favor of the Union of Bessarabia with Romania, Bessarabia being a Romanian province annexed by the Russian Empire in 1812, after the Russian-Turkish war (1806-1812). This historical act opened the process of the unification of Romania, completed on December 1, 1918, through the Union of all the Romanian provinces which were then under foreign rule. 22 years later, in the summer of 1940, following an ultimatum, Stalin’s Moscow annexed both Bessarabia and northern Bukovina, territories that currently belong to the former Soviet Republics of Moldova and Ukraine, respectively.

     

    Brancusi – The Pompidou Center in Paris hosts an exhibition-event dedicated to Constantin Brâncuşi, considered the father of modern sculpture, which can be visited until July 1. Hundreds of sculptures, photographs, sketches and archival images are on display in the exhibition which includes Brâncuşi’s Workshop, the place where the great Romanian artist created and lived, alongside works borrowed from major international museums. All of Constantin Brâncuşi’s works from the Romanian heritage are exhibited, sent by the National Art Museum of Romania and the Art Museum in Craiova (southern Romania). ‘Brâncuşi is an artist who was very little exposed during his life, as he preferred to invite his contemporaries to come to his workshop. He liked to control all dimensions of the presentation of his sculptures’, explains Ariane Coulondre, curator of the exhibition, in a press release. The Brâncusi Retrospective at the Pompidou Center, the first in the last almost 30 years and the largest ever organized event, is held with the support of the Romanian Embassy in France and the Romanian Cultural Institute.

     

    Deficit – Romania’s budget deficit reached, after the first two months of the year, almost 29 billion lei (about 6 billion Euros), accounting for 1.67% of the Gross Domestic Product, show data published by the Finance Ministry. The deficit is almost double compared to the same period of last year. The Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu said, however, that it would observe the 5% threshold estimated for the end of the year. The economy is self-financing and we will have the largest economic growth in Europe, the Romanian PM also said.

     

    Handball – CS Dinamo Bucharest defeated the Danish team Bjerringbro Silkeborg, score 37-34, on Tuesday evening, at home, in the first leg of the play-off of the EHF European League men’s handball competition. The second leg will take place on April 2, in Silkeborg. Trained by the Spanidh Xavi Pascual, the Romanian champions start with the first chance in the return leg to qualify for the next stage. Afterwards, the winners of the quarterfinals will play in the Final Four Tournament (semifinals and finals). The German team Fuchse Berlin is the holder of the trophy. (LS)

  • Key Interest Rate stays at 7%

    Key Interest Rate stays at 7%

    Romania’s Central Bank has kept the
    key interest rate at 7% this year, a measure taken at a time when the latest
    data released shows a lower economic growth in the last three months of 2023.
    The interest rates at which the commercial banks can borrow from the central
    bank have also been maintained as well as those they have when they keep their
    deposits in the Central Bank. The key interest rate hasn’t changed since
    January last year, when it went from 6.75 to 7%.

    The Central Bank’s present
    forecast shows a rise in the annual inflation rate at the beginning of the year
    under the impact of the introduction and rising of indirect taxes and duties.
    After this the inflation rate is expected to come back to a downward trend at a
    slower pace though as compared to both 2023 and the previous forecasts. According
    to central bank experts, future fiscal and income policies, the effects of the
    war in Ukraine and the Middle East conflict as well as the developments in
    Europe, particularly in Germany, represent other uncertainties and even risks
    concerning the inflation rate. In another development the current account of
    the balance of payment has registered a deficit of nearly 22.7 billion euros,
    3.3 billion less than that registered in 2022, says data released by the Central
    Bank. This reduction was mainly due to
    the fact that the balance of goods registered a deficit lower by nearly 3
    billion Euros while the balance of services saw a surplus of more than 204
    million. Here is financial analyst Adrian Codirlasu with more.




    Adrian Codirlasu: If we take the component of the current
    account deficit we see that on the goods side imports went down a little bit,
    actually the prices of imported goods went down. For instance the prices of the
    imported goods based on intensive energy consumption went down as energy prices
    also decreased. In terms of services, the biggest rise was seen in the
    transport sector. Against the background of the war in Ukraine, we are helping this
    country to export its products and we see that we are also getting profit from
    this activity. We have surplus in the service sector but the highest
    contribution to this surplus came from the transport section.


    Direct foreign investment in Romania last year
    stood at nearly 6.6 billion Euros as compared to 10 billion in 2022. According
    to the Central Bank, in 2022, the total foreign debt rose by nearly 25 billion Euros
    up to roughly 169 billion.

    (bill)

  • THE WEEK IN REVIEW

    THE WEEK IN REVIEW

    Deficit for the country


    Romania ended the year
    2023 with a budget deficit of 5.68% of the GDP, more than one percentage point above the figure
    considered when building the budget at the beginning of last year, which was 4.4%
    – the Finance Ministry announced on Wednesday. The good news is that the
    deficit of 5.68% in 2023 is still below that anticipated by the European
    Commission in its autumn forecast, i.e. 6.3%. The difference between expenses
    and revenues stood at roughly 90 billion lei, the equivalent of 18 billion
    Euros.




    Romanian MPs at Work


    After more than one-month
    holiday, the Romanian senators and deputies kicked off a new Parliament session
    on February 1st. Measures aimed at limiting gambling and keeping
    drug use at bay, as well as the bills
    needed to reach the milestones in the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, so
    that Romania can submit payment requests to receive the allocated European
    funds are high on the agenda of the PSD-PNL ruling coalition. The opposition USR & AUR have pledged to stall any
    further tax hikes and prevent the Socialists and Liberals from violating the
    Constitution, as the latter enjoy a comfortable majority in Parliament. The
    press in Bucharest is bracing up for a session fraught with heated debates in a
    year when Romania is going to have all types of elections, European Parliament,
    local, legislative and presidential.




    Hackers for the Prime
    Minister


    The Romanian government
    has amended through an emergency ordinance the cyber-security law so that state
    institutions may be informed in 48 hours on any security breach in the IT
    infrastructures of Romania’s state entities enabling them to have a rapid
    response. The amendments came after the cyber-attacks against the websites of
    the National Directorate for Cyber-Security and the Chamber of Deputies. The
    Minister of Research and Digitization, Social-Democrat Bogdan Ivan, says that
    the cyber-attack on the Directorate failed whereas 300 files of public
    documents have been stolen from the Chamber of Deputies, as well as classified
    data, such as copies of the IDs belonging to Romanian MPs. Among the stolen
    documents is the ID of Romania’s Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, who now needs
    to get another ID card.




    Another Romanian
    politician gets bribe


    Anti-corruption
    prosecutors on Thursday carried out searches at the house of the president of
    Prahova County Council, (southern Romania), Liberal Iulian Dumitrescu and
    members of his family. On a 60-day pretrial conditional release, the politician
    and several other persons are suspected of bribery and misrepresentation.
    Dumitrescu says he doesn’t have anything to conceal and can produce any
    documents needed in the investigation. He has also announced his intention to step
    down from all the positions he holds in the party so as not to affect the
    Liberals’ image. Dumitrescu was one of the four prime vice-presidents of the National
    Liberal Party, part of the ruling coalition with the Social Democrats. He was
    also head of the party’s county branch.

  • January 31, 2024 UPDATE

    January 31, 2024 UPDATE

    PROTESTS In Romania, local administration
    staff in rural areas were on a token strike on Wednesday, with demands
    primarily related to salaries. According to trade unions, almost 11,000
    employees in over 800 town halls in the country signed for the protest. Unionists threaten with an all-out strike
    starting on February 5 unless their demands are met. On the other hand, trade
    unions in the healthcare sector announced they would carry on protests, as the
    government’s current offer to raise salaries by 13.9% this year is not what
    they had expected. Solidaritatea Sanitară Union Federation notified the
    government of their plans to go on an all-out strike. According to the
    federation, under the law the government has 10 days to negotiate with the unions
    and avoid a labour dispute.






    DEFICIT Romania ended the year 2023 with a
    budget deficit of 5.68% of the GDP, as against the 4.4% originally forecast
    when the state budget for last year was drawn up. The deficit is however below
    the 6.3% estimated by the European Commission in its forecast. According to
    data supplied by the Finance Ministry, the difference between revenues and
    expenditure was almost EUR 18 bln.








    REPORT With 46 points out of 100, Romania
    remains one of the EU countries with the poorest results in the implementation
    of anti-corruption measures, according to Transparency International’s annual
    Corruption Perceptions Index. The organisation’s recommendations for Romania
    include updating the legislation in the field of public integrity, improving
    organisational and decision-making transparency, standardising and clarifying
    administrative procedures.






    EU
    Romanian President Klaus Iohannisis in Brussels to take part in a
    ceremony organised by the European Commission in memory of Jacques Delors (1925
    – 2023), a former European Commission president between 1985 and 1995, and to
    attend an extraordinary meeting of the European Council on Thursday. The
    Council meeting will focus on an agreement on the main elements of the proposed
    revision of the 2021-2027 Multiannual Financial Framework. The most important
    decisions are the support for Ukraine, including military support under the
    European Peace Facility, in keeping with the country’s needs. Klaus Iohannis
    will firmly plead for Ukraine to remain a top priority on the EU agenda.






    VISIT The Turkish foreign minister, Hakan
    Fidan, was on a visit to Bucharest, for a meeting with his Romanian counterpart
    Luminiţa Odobescu. The Turkish official also had talks with Prime Minister
    Marcel Ciolacu and the Senate Speaker, Nicolae Ciucă. According to the Turkish
    media, Hakan Fidan is meeting with his counterparts in Albania, Bulgaria and
    Romania ‘to discuss bilateral relations, as well as current regional and global
    developments’. Romania and Turkey signed a Strategic Partnership in 2011,
    followed by a joint action plan, signed in 2013 by the two countries’ foreign
    ministers. (AMP)

  • Deficitul bugetar la final de an

    Deficitul bugetar la final de an

    Guvernul de coaliție PSD-PNL de la București face calcule finale pentru 2023: cheltuieli mai mari au generat un deficit de circa 90 de miliarde de lei (18 mld. euro), reprezentând 5,68% din Produsul Intern Brut. Deficitul este uşor mai redus ca procent din PIB faţă de cel înregistrat în 2022, însă este cu peste un punct procentual peste cifra avută în vedere la construcţia bugetului – la începutul anului trecut, Executivul plecase la drum cu o ţintă de 4,4%, adică de 70 de miliarde de lei. Or, în timp ce veniturile s-au încadrat oarecum în grafic, în schimb derapajul bugetar la capitolul ʹcheltuieliʹ a fost de aproximativ 20 de miliarde de lei.


    Conform Ministerului Finanțelor, veniturile au fost de peste 521 de miliarde de lei, în creștere cu peste 13%. Dinamica acestora a fost susținută, în principal, de evoluția încasărilor din fonduri europene, impozitul pe salarii și venit și contribuții de asigurări. Ca procent din PIB, veniturile s-au situat la 32,9%. Pe de altă parte, cheltuielile au fost în sumă de peste 611 miliarde de lei, iar ca procent din Produsul Intern Brut și-au menținut ponderea la nivelul de 38,6%, înregistrată şi în 2022.


    Ziarul Financiar remarcă faptul că, potrivit cifrelor pe 11 luni, deficitul bugetar a fost de 4,64% din PIB, ceea ce ar însemna că Guvernul l-a adâncit la final de 2023, în decembrie. Oricum ar fi, primul subiect pe agenda discuţiilor de zilele acestea, de la București, ale autorităților române cu o delegație a Fondului Monetar Internațional este tocmai despre deficitul bugetar. România s-a angajat că îl va reduce treptat până la 3%, limită prevăzută de tratatele europene.

    Deși este departe de această țintă, vestea bună este că deficitul de 5,68% din 2023 este, totuși, sub cel anticipat de Comisia Europeană în prognoza sa de toamnă, adică 6,3 procente, dar şi sub aşteptările multor analişti, care îl vedeau la 6%. Să amintim că România se află în procedură de deficit excesiv din 2020, când și-a propus să revină la mai puțin de 3% în 2024. Au urmat, însă, pandemia şi războiul din Ucraina vecină, în consecință Bucureștiul a fost obligat să negocieze cu Comisia Europeană, pentru 2023, o ţintă cuprinsă între 5,5 şi 5,7% din PIB.


    Pentru 2024, bugetul țării este construit pe un deficit anticipat la 5 procente. Între timp, pentru a-l ține sub control, Guvernul PSD-PNL a luat, deja, o serie de măsuri nepopulare – au intrat in vigoare majorări de taxe sau au fost introduse unele noi, în sectorul bugetar au fost eliminate bonuri valorice, au fost îngheţate sporuri, prime sau angajări etc. Sindicatele au anunţat, încă din toamna trecută, că se aşteaptă la nemulțumiri și proteste sociale. Ceea ce, în prezent, se și întâmplă!


  • The Romanian economy at the start of 2024

    The Romanian economy at the start of 2024


    Last year the Romanian economy went up 1.8%, which is however 0.8% less than estimated, reads a recent World Bank report. Also, in January – November 2023, Romanian exports totalled nearly EUR 87 bln, and imports over EUR 112 bln. In other words, exports rose by 2% while imports dropped by over 3% compared to the corresponding period of last year, according to data made public by the National Statistics Institute.



    Even so, the trade deficit exceeded EUR 25 bln last year, in spite of getting more than EUR 5 bln smaller. The economic analyst Constantin Rudniţchi says the deficit primarily narrowed due to the drop in the prices of the energy imported by Romania and to a slow-down in consumption:



    Constantin Rudniţchi: “The good news, if any, is that the trade deficit for the first 11 months of last year dropped compared to the previous year. This decrease is owing to a slow-down in consumption, because, lets not forget, some of the trade balance deficit comes from consumer goods. Obviously, some other part of the deficit is due to industrial goods, but consumer goods have their contribution to the deficit. So on the one hand we saw a decrease in consumption, and implicitly in the deficit. And on the other hand, we have reason to hope (because we dont have all the data yet), the Romanian economy is beginning to produce more goods that are used domestically.”



    The analyst Constantin Rudnițchi believes that, for the trade deficit to keep its encouraging trend, public policies are needed which focus on major sectors, such as the foodstuffs, chemical products and the automotive industry.



    As for the future, the World Bank adjusted downwards its estimates on the Romanian economy, predicting a GDP growth by 3.3% and 3.8% in 2024 and 2025 respectively. In fact, according to the World Bank, the global economy will slow down for the 3rd consecutive year, to 2.4% – the slowest pace since the Covid-19 pandemic. For 2025, the global economic growth is expected to reach an encouraging 2.7%, but even in this case a downward adjustment was operated from the 3% estimate made public last June, especially because of the downturn experienced by the worlds most advanced economies.



    Under these circumstances, the goal of ending extreme poverty by 2030 seems impossible to reach, the World Bank concludes. One way to encourage economic growth, especially in emerging and developing countries, the institution says, is to step up investments in clean energy and adapting to climate change. (AMP)


  • Starea economiei româneşti la început de an

    Starea economiei româneşti la început de an

    Economia românească a crescut cu 1,8% anul trecut, cu 0,8 puncte procentuale, însă, mai puţin decât se estima – arată un raport al Băncii Mondiale. Totodată, în perioada ianuarie-noiembrie 2023, exporturile românești au însumat aproape 87 de miliarde de euro, iar importurile peste 112 miliarde. Cu alte cuvinte, exporturile au înregistrat o creştere cu 2 procente, în timp ce importurile s-au redus cu peste 3% faţă de perioada similară a anului precedent – după cum relevă datele Institutului Naţional de Statistică. Chiar şi așa, deficitul balanţei comerciale a depășit, anul trecut, 25 miliarde de euro, în ciuda faptului că a scăzut cu mai mult de 5 miliarde.


    Analistul economic Constantin Rudniţchi spune că reducerea deficitului provine, în principal, din temperarea preţurilor produselor energetice pe care România le importă, dar şi din încetinirea consumului:

    Vestea bună, dacă poate fi o veste bună, este că deficitul de balanţă comercială pe primele 11 luni ale anului trecut a scăzut în comparaţie cu anul precedent. Această scădere vine de la încetinirea consumului, pentru că, să nu uităm, o bună parte din deficitul de balanţă comercială provine din bunurile de consum. Sigur, avem şi o parte de deficit care vine de la bunurile industriale, dar şi bunurile de larg consum contribuie, să spunem, la deficit. Deci am avut o încetinire a consumului şi, evident, şi o scădere a deficitului. Pe de altă parte, am putea să sperăm mai degrabă, pentru că nu avem încă toate datele, că în economia românească încep să se producă mai multe bunuri care sunt folosite pe piaţa internă.


    Analistul Constantin Rudnițchi este de părere că, pentru scăderea, în continuare, a deficitului balanţei comerciale, sunt necesare politici publice axate pe măsuri în sectoare importante, precum cel agroalimentar, al produselor chimice şi auto.


    În perspectivă, pentru 2024 și 2025, Banca Mondială a revizuit în jos estimările privind evoluţia economiei românești, anticipând o creştere a Produsului Intern Brut de 3,3, respectiv de 3,8%. De altfel, potrivit Băncii Mondiale, economia întregii lumi va încetini, pentru al treilea an consecutiv, până la 2,4% – cel mai lent ritm după pandemia de Covid-19.


    Vestea bună ar fi că, în 2025, creșterea economică globală ar urma să fie până la 2,7%, dar şi în acest caz, cifrele au fost revizuite în jos faţă de estimarea de trei procente din iunie anul trecut, mai ales din cauza încetinirilor înregistrate de economiile avansate. În aceste condiţii, obiectivul de eliminare a sărăciei extreme, până în anul 2030, pare a fi imposibil de atins – spune Banca Mondială. În viziunea acesteia, o modalitate pentru stimularea creşterii economice, în special în ţările emergente şi în curs de dezvoltare, ar fi accelerarea investiţiilor pentru tranziţia la energia curată şi pentru adaptarea la schimbările climatice.



  • Cum va arăta bugetul pentru 2024?

    Cum va arăta bugetul pentru 2024?

    Proiectul
    de buget al României pentru 2024 este unul modern, structurat pe
    priorităţile şi nevoile actuale, susţine ministrul finaţelor publice, Marcel
    Boloş, care subliniază în acelaşi timp obligaţia guvernului de a conduce
    politica fiscal-bugetară într-un mod prudent.


    Proiecţia bugetară include
    majorările de salarii anunţate deja de ceva timp de Executiv – o creştere de 5%
    pentru angajaţii din sistemul public, cu excepţia celor din Educaţie, pentru
    care este prevăzută o majorare de 20% în două etape, la 1 ianuarie și 1 iunie. De
    asemenea, este prevăzută și o majorare de 13,8% pentru pensionari şi
    perspectiva recalculării tuturor pensiilor conform noii legi. De asemenea,
    câștigul salarial mediu net lunar este de 4.733 de lei (cca. 950 euro).     Tot în sectorul
    bugetar este suspendată ocuparea prin concurs a posturilor vacante, munca
    suplimentară va fi compensată în zile libere.


    Proiectul de buget
    este construit pe o creştere economică de 3,4% anul viitor, un deficit de 5%
    din PIB şi o inflaţie medie anuală de şase procente. Veniturile bugetului
    general consolidat ar urma să se ridice la peste 586 de miliarde de lei (cca.
    118 miliarde euro), reprezentând 33,8% din PIB, iar cheltuielile bugetului
    general consolidat s-ar situa la peste 672,7 miliarde de lei (cca. 135 miliarde
    euro), adică la 38,8% din PIB.


    Legea bugetului cuprinde majoritatea
    măsurilor din pachetul fiscal asumat de către Executiv în faţa Parlamentului.
    Printre acestea se numără impozitul minim pe cifra de afaceri, impozitul
    suplimentar pentru instituţiile de credit şi cel pentru operatorii din
    sectoarele petrol şi gaze, limitarea facilităţilor fiscale din IT, construcţii,
    sectorul agricol şi industria alimentară, creşterea TVA de la 5 la 19% în cazul
    alimentelor cu conţinut ridicat de zahăr şi al transportului de persoane în
    scop turistic şi de agrement, de exemplu. Sunt prevăzute şi măsurile legate de
    diminuarea funcţiilor de conducere, desfiinţarea funcţiilor vacante, dar şi
    acordarea voucherelor de vacanţă şi a indemnizaţiei de hrană numai pentru
    funcţionarii publici cu un venit sub nivelul unui plafon de 8.000 lei (cca. 1600
    euro) net lunar. Creşte însă valoarea voucherului de vacanţă de la 1.450v lei
    (290 euro) la 1.600 lei (320 euro) pe an, pentru a nu     fi
    afectaţi beneficiarii de introducerea CASS de 10% pentru aceste tichete.


    Opoziţia
    critică proiectul bugetului. Reprezentanţii AUR şi cei ai USR spun că deficitul
    bugetar va fi mai mare de 5%, cât estimează guvernul. Prim-vicepreşedintele
    AUR, Marius Lulea, afirmă că documentul prezintă cheltuieli mult prea mari, iar
    veniturile sunt estimate în mod nerealist. El atrage atenţia că specialiştii din
    partidul său estimează un deficit de 6% – 7%. La rândul său, fostul ministru
    USR al finanţelor Anca Dragu crede că deficitul bugetar va fi de 7,2% din PIB
    în 2024.


  • December 12, 2023 UPDATE

    December 12, 2023 UPDATE

    MOLDOVA The president of Romania Klaus Iohannis had talks on Tuesday with
    his Moldovan counterpart, Maia Sandu, during which he reiterated Romania’s
    support for Moldova’s EU accession efforts. Romania, Iohannis emphasised, firmly
    supports the opening of EU accession negotiations with the Republic of Moldova.
    Wednesday through Friday president Iohannis takes part in the EU – Western Balkans
    Summit and the European Council meeting in Brussels, in which context he will
    plead for a decision with respect to the start of accession negotiations with
    Ukraine and Moldova. Also on Tuesday, the Romanian PM Marcel Ciolacu had a telephone
    conversation with the Moldovan PM Dorin
    Recean, in which he reiterated Bucharest’s steady support for the neighbouring
    country’s EU accession. The two prime ministers also discussed bilateral
    cooperation projects, especially in the field of cross-border energy
    interconnection and the financial assistance provided by Romania for Moldova’s
    development.


    SCHENGEN The Romanian interior
    minister Cătălin Predoiu highlighted, in a statement following the Salzburg
    Forum in Slovenia on Tuesday, the progress made in the talks concerning Romania’s
    Schengen accession. He said he had talks regarding the technical options for a
    decision to be made in December. As regards the fears concerning the transfer
    of illegal migrants in Austria, Predoiu explained that those concerns exclusively
    relate to the migrants originally registered in Romania. According to the
    current Dublin regulation, once captured in Austria and proved to be illegal
    migrants, these individuals are returned to the country from which they came, the
    Romanian official added. In 2023, 120 people were in this situation, Predoiu
    mentioned.


    ECONOMY Romania’s budget deficit in 2024 will be
    below 5% of GDP, lower than at the end of this year. According to the Romanian
    government made up of the Social Democratic Party and the National Liberal
    Party, next year substantial additional funding will be earmarked for public
    education, healthcare, transports and investments. Under the draft 2024 state
    budget, salaries in the public sector as well as pensions will be raised. The
    government promises that all these increases will be operated without
    concurrent tax raises. The leaders of the ruling coalition parties rely on a
    planned set of measures to increase budget revenue collection and curb tax
    evasion, as well as on the digitization of the national tax agency.

    AGREEMENT
    The Romanian foreign ministry took note of the publication of the Russian
    Federation’s government decision to withdraw from the bilateral agreement of
    2005 concerning the opening of a Romanian consulate general in Rostov-on-Don. According
    to a news release issued on Tuesday, Romania has not been officially notified
    yet on this decision. At present, apart from the embassy in Moscow, Romania
    also operates a consular office in Rostov-on-Don and one in Sankt Petersburg. This
    summer the Romanian foreign ministry requested Moscow to reduce the number of
    diplomatic personnel at the Russian embassy in Bucharest by 40.


    VISIT The PM of
    Romania, Marcel Ciolacu, Tuesday received the foreign minister and deputy PM of
    the Republic of Kazakhstan, Murat Nurtleu, in which context the head of the
    Romanian government emphasised that the excellent dynamics of bilateral
    relations ensure great potential to the bilateral cooperation towards the
    interconnection between Europe and the Caspian Sea region. According to a news
    release issued by the Romanian government, the Romanian PM hailed the upward
    trend of the political dialogue and economic cooperation between the two
    countries and mentioned that Kazakhstan is Romania’s largest economic partner
    in Central Asia. As regards the cooperation in the energy sector, the two
    parties agreed to encourage cooperation in order to enhance the security of
    energy supplies for the EU member states as well as for the Republic of Moldova
    and Ukraine, reads the news release. The two officials also discussed the
    regional security situation in the context of Russia’s military aggression in
    Ukraine.


    TENNIS The
    Romanian tennis player Simona Halep will be heard at the Court of Arbitration
    for Sport in Lausanne on February 7-9, in proceedings initiated by Halep
    against the International Tennis Integrity Agency (ITIA). In October, the twice
    Grand Slam winner lodged an appeal with the CAS against her 4-year suspension
    for doping. The Romanian athlete was penalised for two separate violations of
    the Tennis Anti-Doping Programme, the first one concerning the identification
    of a banned substance at the 2022 US Open, and the second one concerning
    irregularities in her biological passport. (AMP)

  • Les prévisions européennes pour l’économie roumaine

    Les prévisions européennes pour l’économie roumaine


    La Commission
    nationale pour la Stratégie et les Prévisions de Roumanie a révisé à la baisse
    ses estimations de croissance économique pour l’année en cours, de 2,8% à 2%,
    en invoquant le ralentissement de l’industrie et les faibles récoltes
    agricoles. A Bruxelles, la Commission européenne a abaissé également ses
    prévisions de croissance pour l’économie de la Roumanie de 3,2% au mois de mai
    à 2,2% actuellement. Parmi les facteurs ayant mené à une telle décision, l’Exécutif
    européen mentionne la hausse de l’inflation qui limite les revenus réels
    disponibles, le durcissement des conditions financières et la demande
    extérieure.


    Après une
    avancée de 2,2% enregistrée cette année, l’économie roumaine devrait afficher
    une croissance de 3,1% dans le courant de l’année prochaine, soit un
    pourcentage inférieur aux prévisions de 3,5% avancées au printemps dernier. La
    croissance économique se poursuivra en 2025 aussi, de 3,4% selon les
    estimations. Aux dires de la CE, l’accélération économique dans les deux années
    à venir sera soutenue par une hausse des revenus disponibles, parallèlement à l’affaiblissementde l’impact de la majoration des taux
    d’intérêt et la résistance de la consommation et des investissements publics.

    Le déficit public risque de monter


    Si les
    prévisions européennes tablent sur un ralentissement de la consommation privée
    en Roumanie, elles parlent des investissements comme du principal vecteur de
    croissance du PIB dans l’intervalle prise en considération. Dans son rapport,
    la Commission européenne estime que d’ici la fin de l’année, le déficit public
    risque de se monter à 6,3% du PIB, en se situant au même niveau qu’en 2022. Par
    conséquent, il s’agit d’une révision significative à la hausse par rapport au
    taux de déficit de 4,7% estimé au printemps dernier. Suite à la mise en place
    en janvier d’une série de mesures de consolidation fiscale, le déficit public
    de la Roumanie pourrait baisser à 5,3% en 2024 et 5,1% en 2025, selon l’Exécutif
    communautaire. Néanmoins, une telle diminution risque d’être partiellement
    contrecarrée par la majoration des coûts en personnel.


    Bruxelles
    précise que dans ses prévisions, il n’a pas pris en considération la manière dont
    les dépenses risquent d’augmenter à court terme une fois mise en place la
    nouvelle réforme des retraites qui débouchera sur une hausse de la plupart des
    pensions. Confrontée déjà à une procédure de déficit excessif, la Roumanie doit
    faire de son mieux pour réduire l’écart entre les dépenses publiques et les
    revenus. Sinon, elle risque de perdre des dizaines de milliards d’euros de
    financement.

    Une posible baisse de l’inflation l’année prochaine


    Quant à l’inflation,
    le gouvernement de Bucarest pense que la tendance à la baisse du taux d’inflation
    ne deviendra visible qu’à partir de l’année prochaine et dans les deux ans à
    venir, quand ce taux pourrait correspondre à nouveau aux prévisions de la
    Banque centrale de Roumanie. En attendant, pour 2023, la Commission européenne
    prédit une inflation en légère baisse d’une moyenne de 12% en 2022 à 9,8%,
    avant de chuter à 5,9% en 2024 et à 3,4% en 2025.





  • Working in Romania

    Working in Romania

    27% of
    the Romanian managers are concerned with the labour shortage reported in the
    first half of the year, according to a Confidex survey conducted by Impetum
    Group. This is 16% more than the level reported at the end of lui 2022. The
    labour shortage seems to become one of the main concerns for the business
    environment, overtaking other worrying issues such as the inflation rate and
    price rises, which were a concern for almost half of the managers interviewed
    at the end of last year, the polling company said. One solution to this
    problem, according to some managers, is to integrate public sector employees in
    the private system and to import human resources from other countries. But the
    latter has proved complicated, given that Romania is not an attractive country
    for immigrant workers, so employee retention is a challenge in itself, the
    survey authors also pointed out. The Confidex survey aims to provide a clear
    image of the perceptions of business people in Romania, with more than 2,500
    entrepreneurs and company executives taking part in the 8 editions of the poll
    so far.


    The
    biggest problem facing construction companies in Romania at present has to do
    with the workforce, an IBC Focus report reads. Over 75% of the constructions
    entrepreneurs say they still struggle with labour shortages, and only 11% of
    the respondents say they have enough employees and well trained people in their
    teams. Nearly 58% of the participants in the poll said they were interested in increasing
    their personnel numbers in the coming year. Also, one in 3 constructions
    companies in Romania currently uses foreign workers, as opposed to 1 in 4
    companies last year. The authors of the poll argue that the number of companies
    adjusting to the labour market and defining procedures for employing foreign
    workers is growing, and some 20% of the construction companies in Romania are
    looking at the option of hiring foreign nationals.



    Another survey, conducted by Deloitte, indicates
    that 41% of the companies operating in Romania which say they cannot find
    enough staff are facing a shortage of skills required for the current business
    systems, which is why companies increasingly resort to so-called workforce
    eco-systems, which involve the identification and management of new types of
    human resources, such as consultants, freelancers, contractors or outsourcing, in
    addition to traditional workforce consisting of full time or part time
    employees. The Deloitte report also indicates that, for companies in Romania,
    the benefits of a workforce eco-system comprising several different types of
    human resources and managed through customized strategies and processes include
    improved financial performance for 41% of the respondents and better personnel
    retention for 29% of the respondents. Taking part in the latest edition of the Global
    Human Capital Trends report, conducted by Deloitte on a yearly basis, were
    around 10,000 respondents from 105 countries, including Romania.




    More than 4,000 foreign nationals were found
    staying in Romania illegally in the first 9 months of this year, the General
    Immigration Inspectorate announced. In January – September, the police
    conducted nearly 13,000 checks and inspections aimed at preventing and fighting
    the illegal stay and unregistered employment of foreign nationals in Romania. Local
    employment inspectorate employees also took part in these actions. Some 9,000
    fines were issued for the violation of the legal and employment status of
    foreigners, and around 3,200 people were issued return decisions. Another 1,000
    were escorted out of the country, and 960 others were taken into custody until
    their repatriation. (AMP)

  • 01.11.2023 (mise à jour)

    01.11.2023 (mise à jour)

    SRR – Radio Roumanie a marqué ce mercredi, 1 novembre, 95 années
    d’activité. Pour célébrer son rôle en Roumanie, le Parlement a décidé en
    décembre 2019 que la journée du 1 novembre devienne la Journée de la radio
    roumaine. Plus de trois milions de personnes écoutent chaque jour les émissions
    de la radio publique. Des institutions publiques, des ONG et des personnalités
    artistiques et culturelles ont tenu à féliciter la radio publique. Le premier
    ministre, Marcel Ciolacu, a rappelé que cela fait presqu’un siècle que Radio
    Roumanie encourage les valeurs et les traditions roumaines. Pour sa part, le
    président de l’Académie roumaine, Ioan Aurel Pop, a ajouté que la radio
    publique a été témoin de plusieurs moments importants de l’histoire nationale. A
    Timisoara, capitale européenne de la culture en 2023, la Foire du livre
    Gaudeamus patrônée par Radio Roumanie se déroule jusqu’au 5 novembre. Le
    vendredi, 3 novembre, un concert anniversaire sera présenté par l’Orchestre de
    Radio Roumanie. Ensuite, du 22 au 26 novembre, la Foire du livre Gaudeamus se
    poursuivra à Bucarest, au Palais des Expositions Romexpo.

    Pensions de retraite– En Roumanie, le projet de la nouvelle loi de la retraite a été soumis au débat public et figure désormais sur le site du Ministère du Travail. Le document a reçu l’avis favorable de la coalition au pouvoir et l’Exécutif voudrait l’adopter en procédure d’urgence d’ici la fin du mois. Toutes les pensions de retraite seront indexées sur l’inflation, a fait savoir le premier ministre Marcel Ciolacu qui a précisé que la période minimale de cotisation sera de 15 ans et celle maximale de 35 ans. La stabilité au travail sera récompensée aussi. Les femmes ayant plusieurs enfants pourront bénéficier d’une réduction de l’âge de la prise de la retraite. Les pensions de retraite seront majorées en deux reprises, la première fois à partir du 1 janvier et ensuite, à partir du 1 septembre.





    Salaires – Le gouvernement de Bucarest a approuvé
    mardi, lors d’une réunion extraordinaire, les nouveaux salaires minimums pour
    les secteurs de la construction, de l’agriculture et de l’industrie
    agro-alimentaire. A partir du 1er novembre, le Smic dans le secteur du BTT est majoré de presque 14,6% pour monter à presque 900 euros, tandis que dans les
    domaines de l’Agriculture et de l’Industrie alimentaire, il connaît une
    hausse de 14,53% et approche les 700 euros. Selon les données officielles,
    590 000 salariés des secteurs de la construction, de l’agriculture et de
    l’industrie alimentaire roumaine sont concernés par ces changements. En augmentant les salaires, le gouvernement souhaite que les
    salariés de ces secteurs ne voient pas leurs salaires baisser, suite à la suppression
    de l’exonération du paiement de l’assurance maladie.










    La Haye
    – Les
    premiers avions de combat F16 dont les Pays-Bas feront don à l’Ukraine
    arriveront dans deux semaines au centre de formation créé en Roumanie, a
    annoncé le Premier ministre néerlandais Mark Rutte. Lors d’une discussion par vidéoconférence avec le président
    ukrainien Volodymyr Zelenski, publiée sur Internet, le Premier ministre
    néerlandais a souligné que la situation actuelle au Moyen-Orient ne devrait pas
    et ne pourra pas ébranler le soutien apporté à l’Ukraine par les Pays-Bas. L’agence
    Reuters a rappelé qu’à leur tour, le Danemark, la Norvège et la Belgique
    avaient annoncé qu’ils fourniraient à l’Ukraine des avions F16.


    Ambassadeurs – Les ambassadeurs du groupe des pays arabes et de
    plusieurs pays membres de l’Organisation de la coopération islamiques ont eu
    une entrevue avec les membres de la Commission pour la politique étrangère du
    Sénat roumain. L’ambassadrice du Liban à Bucarest, Rana Mokkadem, a remercié
    Bucarest pour son aide humanitaire accordée à la population civile de la Bande
    de Gaza et a averti sur le risque de propagation du conflit dans la région. En
    quelque sorte, on représente la Palestine et on lance un appel à une solution
    pacifique, qui respecte la dignité des Palestiniens. Selon nous, la Palestine
    est la vraie victime a-t-elle déclaré. Antérieurement, l’épouse d’un citoyen
    ayant la double nationalité, israélienne et roumaine, détenu dans la bande de
    Gaza, a rencontré lundi à Bucarest les membres de la Commission de politique
    étrangère du Sénat. Ella Chaimi a
    rencontré aussi le premier ministre, Marcel Ciolacu et a demandé l’aide de l’Etat
    roumain pour la libération de son mari et des autres otages. Le
    Ministère roumain des Affaires Etrangères affirme avoir identifié deux autres
    citoyens ayant la double citoyenneté, israélienne et roumaine, détenus en otage
    dans la Bande de Gaza.
















    Football – Le match entre les sélections nationales de football
    israélienne et roumaine comptant pour la qualification à l’Euro 2024 aura lieu
    le 18 novembre, en Hongrie, a annoncé la Fédération roumaine sur son site. La
    présence des spectateurs sera permise. Antérieurement, le forum continental a
    décidé de suspendre tous les marchs prévus en Israël, en raison de la situation
    politique et militaire dans la région. A part la rencontre avec Israël, la
    Roumanie a encore un match à disputer au sein de son groupe de qualification,
    le 21 novembre, contre la Suisse. Après huit victoires consécutives, la
    Roumanie a 16 points et elle domine son groupe, suivie par la Suisse et Israël.
    Les deux équipes premièrement classées seront qualifiées au tournoi final en
    Allemagne. La dernière participation de la Roumanie à un championnat européen
    de football remonte à 2016.














    Météo
    – Le temps se refroidit sur l’ensemble de la Roumanie où des pluies tomberont
    sur plusieurs régions. Les températures iront jeudi de 13 à 20 degrés.

  • Tax and budget-related measures

    Tax and budget-related measures

    The budget deficit remains one of the weaknesses of the Romanian
    public administration, and the government made up of the Social Democratic
    Party and the National Liberal Party promises to remain strict in terms of
    public spending. The Cabinet has taken responsibility for a set
    of measures aimed at reducing waste by restricting procurement, reducing
    executive positions and merging public institutions, scrapping some tax
    facilities, fighting fraud and tax evasion.


    Moreover, as of November 1, a new emergency order takes effect,
    concerning year-end expenditure. The order introduces restrictions for public
    institutions and local administration units, including with respect to the organisation
    of festivals and competitions. Authorising officers may no longer contract
    office supplies and other goods and services used in maintenance and repair works.


    The finance minister Marcel Boloş says that in the past, in November
    and December expenses with goods and services were two, three or even four
    times higher than in other months, which is why the Cabinet decided that such
    expenses must not exceed the average level of the first 10 months of the year.


    The order also stipulates that payment of the salary rights for
    which public sector employees have won lawsuits will be postponed to 2024. The
    Social Democratic PM Marcel Ciolacu promises however that there are no reasons
    to worry and that the government has enough funds to cover salaries and other
    expenses, and pension benefits will be raised by 13.5% as of January 1, 2024 to
    cover inflation.


    The new measures were taken by the government after last week the
    European Statistics Office (Eurostat) announced that Hungary (6.6%) and Romania
    (6.3) are the countries with the highest budget deficit of the 27 EU member
    states.


    Also last week, during talks regarding the European Union budget,
    the president of Romania Klaus Iohannis called for rethinking the way in
    which budget deficits are determined. At the European Council meeting in
    Brussels, the Romanian president said the new EU budget should meet current
    challenges, such as the support for Russia-invaded Ukraine, the security crisis
    in the Middle East and the drop in the competitiveness of the EU economy.


    The request comes after, for 3 years in a row, Romania exceeded
    the budget deficit agreed on in the Stability Pact, the EU instrument that compels
    member states to keep their budget deficits within sustainable limits, so as
    not to lead to macro-economic imbalances. Iohannis also asked for the budget
    revision not to affect the agriculture and cohesion allocations, the two major
    directions through which the EU is financing Romania’s development. (AMP)